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1 Effects of Legislation That Would Raise Deficits by an Estimated $1.5 Trillion over the 2018-2027 Period 1 (2017)

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  CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET  OFFICE                           Keith Hall, Director
  U.S. Congress
  Washington, DC 20515



                       November   13, 2017



Honorable Steny H. Hoyer
Democratic Whip
U.S. House of Representatives
Washington, DC  20515

Dear Congressman:

This letter responds to your request for information about the effects
of legislation that would raise deficits by an estimated $1.5 trillion
over the 2018-2027 period, specifically with respect to a
sequestration-or cancellation of budgetary resources-in
accordance with the Statutory Pay-As-You-Go Act of 2010
(PAYGO;   Public Law  111-139).

The PAYGO law requires   that new legislation enacted during a term
of Congress does not collectively increase estimated deficits. The
Office of Management  and Budget (OMB)   is required to maintain
two so-called PAYGO   scorecards to report the cumulative changes
generated by new legislation in estimated revenues and outlays over
the next five years and ten years. If either scorecard indicates a net
increase in the deficit, OMB is required to order a sequestration to
eliminate the overage. The authority to determine whether a
sequestration is required (and if so, exactly how to make the
necessary cuts in budget authority) rests solely with OMB.

CBO  has analyzed the implications of enacting a bill that would
increase deficits by $1.5 trillion over a 10-year window, without
enacting any further legislation to offset that increase. In accordance
with the PAYGO   law, OMB  would  record the average annual deficit
on its PAYGO  scorecard, showing deficit increases of, in the
example provided, $150 billion per year. If the bill were enacted
before the end of the calendar year, that amount would be added to
the current balances on the PAYGO scorecard, which for 2018,
show  a positive balance of $14 billion. (For years after 2018, the
balances range from a $14 billion credit to a $1 billion debit.)

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