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1 Distributional Analysis of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, as Ordered Reported by the Senate Committee on Finance on November 16, 2017 1 (2017)

handle is hein.congrec/dsanytxcu3965 and id is 1 raw text is: CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE Keith Hall, Director U.S. Congress Washington, DC 20515 November 27, 2017 Honorable Orrin Hatch Chairman Committee on Finance United States Senate Washington, DC 20510 Re: Distributional Analysis of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, as Ordered Reported by the Senate Committee on Finance on November 16, 2017, Excluding the Effects of Eliminating the Individual Mandate Penalty Dear Mr. Chairman: This letter responds to the request from your staff to provide a distributional analysis of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that excludes the effects of eliminating the individual mandate penalty associated with the requirement that most people obtain health insurance coverage. On the basis of estimates prepared by the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) for that analysis, the Congressional Budget Office reports that the combined effect of the change in net federal revenues and spending would be to increase deficits allocated to all income groups of tax-filing units in 2019, 2021, 2023, and 2025 (see the enclosed table). In 2027, that combined effect would decrease deficits allocated to lower-income tax-filing units and increase deficits allocated to higher-income tax-filing units. In reporting those estimates, CBO has not attempted to estimate the value that people place on changes in revenues and spending, which may be different from the actual cost to the government. Compared with the analysis that CBO provided yesterday, excluding the effects of the individual mandate penalty removes from this distributional analysis the effects on revenues and outlays related to premium tax credits as well as changes in spending for Medicaid, cost-sharing reduction payments, the Basic Health Program, and Medicare. 1 1 For yesterday's analysis, see Congressional Budget Office, cost estimate for Reconciliation Recommendations of the Senate Committee on Finance, as ordered reported by the Senate Committee on Finance on November 16, 2017 (November 26, 2017), www.cbo.2ov/oublication/53348. www.cbo.gov

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