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1 Three Scenarios for the Budget as Specified by Senator Graham 1 (May 21, 2021)

handle is hein.congrec/cbotscb0001 and id is 1 raw text is: CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE Phillip L. Swagel, Director U.S. Congress Washington, DC 20515 May 21, 2021 Honorable Lindsey Graham Ranking Member Committee on the Budget United States Senate Washington, DC 20510 Re: Three Scenarios for the Budget as Specified by Senator Graham Dear Senator: As you requested, the Congressional Budget Office has calculated the budgetary outcomes under three scenarios. Specifically, you asked how recently enacted legislation and certain amounts of additional spending would change the budget projections that CBO released on February 11, 2021.1 This letter details those changes. CBO's February 2021 Baseline Projections. In CBO's most recent baseline, projected deficits amounted to $14.5 trillion over the 2021-2031 period, and debt held by the public was projected to reach $35.3 trillion by the end of 2031, equal to 107 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Those projections were completed before the enactment of Public Law 117-2, the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA), which CBO has estimated will add $1.8 trillion to deficits over the 2021-2031 period (excluding interest costs on the added debt).2 Those effects, along with additional legislative, economic, and technical changes, will be incorporated into CBO's next set of budget and economic projections. To provide a benchmark against which the Congress can consider the budgetary effects of legislation, CBO's baseline is constructed under an assumption that current law remains generally unchanged. Consequently, if 1. See Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031 (February 2021), www.cbo.gov/publication/56970. The amounts noted here are based on CBO's most recent economic forecast. See Congressional Budget Office, An Overview of the Economic Outlook: 2021 to 2031 (February 2021), www.cbo.gov/publication/56965. 2. See Congressional Budget Office, estimated budgetary effects of H.R. 1319, the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (March 10, 2021), www.cbo.gov/publication/57056. www.cbo.gov

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