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                                 Working Paper Series
                             Congressional Budget Office
                                   Washington, D.C.





A Simplified Model of How Macroeconomic Changes Affect
                              the Federal Budget


      Nathaniel Frentz
   Tax Analysis Division
Congressional Budget Office
nathaniel frentz@cbo.gov

        Dan Ready
 Budget Analysis Division
Congressional Budget Office
    dan.ready@cbo.gov


          Jaeger Nelson
Macroeconomic Analysis Division
   Congressional Budget Office
     jaeger.nelson@cbo.gov

           John Seliski
Macroeconomic Analysis Division
   Congressional Budget Office
      john. seliski@cbo.gov


                                Working Paper 2020-01

                                     January 2020

To enhance the transparency of the work of the Congressional Budget Office and to encourage external
review of that work, CBO's working paper series includes papers that provide technical descriptions of
official CBO analyses as well as papers that represent independent research by CBO analysts. Papers in
that series are available at ittp://go.usa.gov/ULE.
This paper has not been subject to CBO's regular review and editing process. The views expressed here
should not be interpreted as CBO's.
For helpful comments and suggestions, we thank Robert Arnold, Mark Booth (formerly of CBO),
Devrim Demirel, Wendy Edelberg, Christina Hawley Anthony, John Kitchen, Jeffrey Kling,
John McClelland, H. Samuel Papenfuss, Joseph Rosenberg, Joshua Shakin, Phillip Swagel, and
Jeffrey Werling. We also thank Chad Stone, of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, and
Alan Viard, of the American Enterprise Institute. Gabe Waggoner edited the paper.


www.cbo.gov/publication/55884

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