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                                                                                     August  7, 2019





             Monthly Budget Review for July 2019


The federal budget deficit was $867 billion for the first 10 months of fiscal year 2019, the Congressional
Budget Office estimates-$184  billion more than the deficit recorded during the same period last year.
Revenues  were $92 billion higher and outlays were $276 billion higher than in the same period in fiscal
year 2018.

However,  outlays in the first 10 months of last year were reduced by shifts in the timing of certain
payments. If not for those shifts, the deficit for that period would have been $44 billion greater, and the
increase in the deficit so far this year would have been $140 billion rather than $184 billion.


                                     Budget Totals, October-July
                                            Billions of Dollars

                           Actual. FY 2018        Preliminary. FY 2019     Estimated Change

          Receipts              2,766                   2,858                    92
          Outlays               3,450                   3.726                   276

          Deficit (-)           -684                    -867                   -184
          Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of the Treasury. Based on the Monthly Treasury
          Statement for June 2019 and the Daily Treasury Statements for July 2019.
          FY = fiscal year.


Total Receipts:  Up  by 3 Percent   in the First 10 Months  of Fiscal Year  2019
Receipts totaled $2,858 billion during the first 10 months of fiscal year 2019, CBO estimates-$92 billion
(or 3 percent) more than during the same period last year. That increase was the result of changes in
receipts from the following sources:

    m   Individual income  and payroll (social insurance) taxes together rose by $78 billion
        (or 3 percent).
             o   Amounts  withheld from workers' paychecks rose by $51 billion (or 3 percent). That
                 change largely reflects increases in wages and salaries that were partly offset by a decline
                 in the share of income withheld for taxes. The Internal Revenue Service issued new
                 withholding tables in January 2018 to reflect changes made by the 2017 tax act (Public
                 Law  115-97). All employers were required to begin using the new tables by February 15,
                 2018. Those new withholding rates were in effect during the first 10 months of this fiscal
                 year but for only five and a half months of the same period last year.
             o   Nonwithheld payments  of income and payroll taxes rose by $9 billion (or 1 percent).

             o   Income tax refunds were down by $22 billion (or 8 percent), further boosting net receipts.



Note: The amounts shown in this report include the surplus or deficit in the Social Security trust funds and the net cash
flow of the Postal Service, which are off-budget. Numbers may not sum to totals because of rounding.

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