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1 Monthly Budget Review: Summary for Fiscal Year 2018 1 (November 7, 2018)

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                                                                                  November  7, 2018






                         Monthly Budget Review:

                    Summary for Fiscal Year 2018


In fiscal year 2018, which ended on September 30, the federal budget deficit totaled $779 billion-
$113 billion more than the shortfall recorded in 2017. The deficit increased to 3.8 percent of the nation's
gross domestic product (GDP) in 2018, up from 3.5 percent in 2017 and 3.2 percent in 2016. Outlays in
2018 were reduced by a shift in the timing of certain payments; those payments were instead made in fiscal
year 2017 because October 1, 2017 (the first day of fiscal year 2018), fell on a weekend. If not for that
shift, the deficit in 2018 would have been $823 billion, or 4.1 percent of GDP.


                                        Fiscal Year Totals
                                        Billions of Dollars

                                2013        2014        2015       2016        2017        2018

 Receipts                      2.775       3.021       3.250       3.268       3.315       3.329
 Outlays                       3.455       3.506       3.688       3.853       3.981       4.108
 Deficit (-)
    Amount                      -680        -485        -438       -585        -666        -779
    Percentage of GDP           -4.1        -2.8        -2.4        -3.2        -3.5        -3.8
 Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Office of Management and Budget; Department of the Treasury.
 GDP = gross domestic product.

 In 2018, the government's revenues amounted to $3.3 trillion-$14 billion (or less than 1 percent) more
 than in 2017. As a percentage of GDP, revenues fell from 17.2 percent in 2017 to 16.4 percent in 2018,
 dropping below the average (17.4 percent) for the past 50 years.

 Net spending by the government was $4.1 trillion in 2018-$127 billion (or 3.2 percent) more than in
 2017. Outlays amounted to 20.3 percent of GDP in 2018, compared with 20.7 percent in 2017, and were
 equal to the 50-year average. If not for the shift in the timing of certain payments, outlays in 2018 would
have equaled 20.5 percent of GDP.

Total Receipts:  Up by Less  Than  1 Percent  in Fiscal Year 2018
Total receipts in 2018 were similar to those in 2017 because of offsetting changes in different sources of
revenues, which stemmed in part from provisions in last year's major tax legislation (Public Law 115-97):

    m   Receipts from individual income taxes, the largest source of revenues, increased by
        $96 billion (or 6 percent). As a share of the economy, those receipts rose from 8.2 percent
        of GDP in 2017 to 8.3 percent of GDP in 2018, remaining above the average (8.0 percent)
        over the past 50 years.
            o   Nonwithheld payments of income taxes rose by $87 billion (or 16 percent). Most
                of that increase occurred in April, when taxpayers made their final payments of
                taxes for 2017.

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