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1 Monthly Budget Review for September 2019 1 (October 7, 2019)

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                                                                                     October 7, 2019





       Monthly Budget Review for September 2019


The federal budget deficit was $984 billion in fiscal year 2019, the Congressional Budget Office estimates.
CBO's  estimate is based on data from the Daily Treasury Statements issued by the Department of the
Treasury; the department will report the actual deficit for fiscal year 2019 later this month.

Relative to the size of the economy, the deficit-at an estimated 4.7 percent of gross domestic product
(GDP)-was the   highest since 2012, and 2019 was the fourth consecutive year in which the deficit
increased as a percentage of GDP.

The estimated deficit is $205 billion more than the shortfall recorded in fiscal year 2018. However, that
year's outlays were affected by a shift in the timing of certain payments. Because October 1, 2017, fell on a
weekend,  $44 billion in outlays was shifted to September of fiscal year 2017. If not for that, the 2019
deficit would have been $162 billion larger than the 2018 amount, rather than $205 billion larger.
Excluding that effect, revenues were 4 percent higher and outlays were 7 percent higher in 2019 than they
were in 2018, CBO  estimates.

The deficit of $984 billion is about $24 billion larger than the shortfall that CBO projected in its August
2019 report, An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2019 to 2029. Revenues exceeded the
projection by $11 billion but outlays exceeded the projection by $35 billion, according to CBO's estimates.


                                          Fiscal Year Totals
                                            Billions of Dollars

                           Actual, FY 2018        Prelirninary. FY 2019    Estimated Change

          Receipts              3.329                   3,462                   133
          Outlays               4.108                   4,446                   338

          Deficit (-)           -779                    -984                   -205
          Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of the Treasury. Based on the Monthly Treasury
          Statement for August 2019 and the Daily Treasury Statements for September 2019.
          FY = fiscal year.


Total Receipts:  Up  by 4 Percent   in Fiscal Year 2019
Receipts totaled $3,462 billion in fiscal year 2019, CBO estimates. The increase relative to last year was
the result of changes in receipts from the following sources:

    m   Individual income  and payroll (social insurance) taxes together rose by $107 billion
        (or 4 percent).
             o   Amounts  withheld from workers' paychecks rose by $78 billion (or 3 percent). That
                 change largely reflects increases in wages and salaries that were partly offset by a decline
                 in the share of income withheld for taxes. The Internal Revenue Service issued new

Note: The amounts shown in this report include the surplus or deficit in the Social Security trust funds and the net cash
flow of the Postal Service, which are off-budget. Numbers may not sum to totals because of rounding.

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