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1 Monthly Budget Review for March 2019 1 (April 5, 2019)

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                                                                                      April 5, 2019





            Monthly Budget Review for March 2019


The federal budget deficit was $693 billion for the first half of fiscal year 2019, the Congressional Budget
Office estimates, $94 billion more than the deficit recorded during the same period last year. Revenues
were $9 billion (or 1 percent) higher and outlays were $103 billion (or 5 percent) higher than during the
first half of 2018.


                                    Budget Totals, October-March
                                            Billions of Dollars

                           Actual, FY 2018        Preliminary FY 2019      Estimated Change

          Receipts              1.497                   1.506                     9
          Outlays               2.097                   2.200                   103

          Deficit (-)           -600                    -693                    -94
          Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of the Treasury. Based on the Monthly Treasury
          Statement for February 2019 and the Daily Treasury Statements for March 2019.
          FY = fiscal year.



Total Receipts: Up Slightly in the First Half of Fiscal Year 2019
Receipts totaled $1,506 billion during the first half of fiscal year 2019, CBO estimates-$9 billion (or
1 percent) more than during the same period last year. That slight increase was the result of offsetting
changes in receipts from the following sources:

    m   Individual income  and payroll (social insurance) taxes together rose by $14 billion (or
         1 percent).
             o   Amounts  withheld from workers' paychecks fell by $6 billion (or less than 1 percent).
                 That change reflects a decline in the share of income withheld for taxes, which more than
                 offset increases in wages and salaries. The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) issued new
                 withholding tables last January to reflect changes made by the 2017 tax act (Public Law
                 115-97). All employers were required to begin using the new tables by February 15,
                 2018. Hence, the new withholding rates were in effect during the first six months of this
                 fiscal year but for only a small portion of the same period last year.

             o   Nonwithheld payments  of income and payroll taxes rose by $9 billion (or 5 percent). The
                 first quarterly payment of estimated individual income taxes in the current fiscal year was
                 due on January 15. (That payment was for 2018 tax liabilities.) Most taxpayers will not
                 make their final payment of income taxes for 2018 until this month, when individual tax
                 returns are due.


Note: The amounts shown in this report include the surplus or deficit in the Social Security trust funds and the net cash
flow of the Postal Service, which are off-budget. Numbers may not sum to totals because of rounding.

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