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                                                                                      June 7, 2019





              Monthly Budget Review for May 2019


The federal budget deficit was $738 billion for the first eight months of fiscal year 2019, the Congressional
Budget Office estimates, $206 billion more than the deficit recorded during the same period last year.
Revenues  were $49 billion higher and outlays were $255 billion higher than during first eight months
of 2018.

Shifts in the timing of certain payments increased outlays in the first eight months of this year by
$50 billion; last year such shifts decreased outlays by $44 billion. If not for those shifts, the increase in the
deficit so far for fiscal year 2019 would have been $112 billion rather than $206 billion.

                                     Budget Totals, October-May
                                            Billions of Dollars

                           Actual FY 2018      Preliminary. FY 2019    Estimated Change

          Receipts              2.225                   2.274                    49
          Outlays               2.757                   3.011                   255

          Deficit (-)           -532                    -738                   -206
          Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of the Treasury. Based on the Monthly Treasury
          Statement for April 2019 and the Daily Treasury Statements for May 2019.
          FY = fiscal year.


Total Receipts:  Up  by 2 Percent   in the First Eight Months  of Fiscal Year  2019
Receipts totaled $2,274 billion during the first eight months of fiscal year 2019, CBO estimates-
$49 billion (or 2 percent) more than during the same period last year. That increase was the result of
changes in receipts from the following sources:

    m   Individual income  and payroll (social insurance) taxes together rose by $51 billion
        (or 3 percent).
             o   Amounts  withheld from workers' paychecks rose by $30 billion (or 2 percent). That
                 change largely reflects increases in wages and salaries that were partly offset by a decline
                 in the share of income withheld for taxes. The Internal Revenue Service issued new
                 withholding tables in January 2018 to reflect changes made by the 2017 tax act (Public
                 Law  115-97). All employers were required to begin using the new tables by February 15,
                 2018. Hence, the new withholding rates were in effect during the first eight months of
                 this fiscal year but for only about half of the same period last year.
             o   Nonwithheld payments  of income and payroll taxes rose by $8 billion (or 2 percent).

             o   Income tax refunds were down by $17 billion (or 7 percent), further boosting net receipts.
             o   Unemployment   insurance receipts (one kind of payroll tax) declined by $4 billion
                 (or 10 percent). Receipts have fallen each year since peaking in 2012.


Note: The amounts shown in this report include the surplus or deficit in the Social Security trust funds and the net cash
flow of the Postal Service, which are off-budget. Numbers may not sum to totals because of rounding.

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