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                    ~February 7, 2020






          Monthly Budget Review for January 2020


The federal budget deficit was $388 billion for the first four months of fiscal year 2020, the Congressional
Budget Office estimates, $78 billion more than the deficit recorded during the same period last year.
Revenues and outlays alike were higher this year-by 6 percent and 10 percent, respectively-than during
the first four months of fiscal year 2019.

However, outlays during the first four months of this year were boosted by shifts in the timing of certain
payments that otherwise would have been due at the beginning of February, which fell on a weekend.
Those shifts increased outlays through January by $55 billion; without them, the outlay increase would
have been 6 percent and the deficit for the first four months of 2020 would have been $333 billion, roughly
$23 billion larger, rather than $78 billion larger, than the amount for the same period last year.


                                  Budget Totals, October-January
                                           Billions of Dollars

                           Actual, FY 2019       Preliminary, FY 2020     Estimated Change

          Receipts              1,111                  1.175                    67
          Outlays               1.421                  1.567                   145

          Deficit (-)           -310                    -358                   -75
          Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of the Treasury. Based on the Monthly Treasury
          Statement for December 2019 and the Daily Treasury Statements for January 2020.
          FY = fiscal year.


Total Receipts: Up by 6 Percent in the First Four Months of Fiscal Year 2020
Receipts totaled $1,178 billion during the first four months of fiscal year 2020, CBO estimates-$67 billion
more than during the same period last year. The changes from last year to this year were as follows:

    *   Individual income and payroll (social insurance) taxes together rose by $53 billion (or
        5 percent).
            o   Amounts withheld from workers' paychecks rose by $44 billion (or 5 percent), reflecting
                increases in wages and salaries.
            o   Nonwithheld payments of income and payroll taxes rose by $8 billion (or 5 percent) and
                individual income tax refunds fell by $1 billion (or 4 percent), increasing net receipts.
                The first quarterly payment of estimated individual income taxes in the current fiscal year
                was due by January 15.

    *   Corporate income taxes rose, on net, by $16 billion (or 27 percent). Much of that increase
        occurred in December, when most corporations made their final quarterly estimated payments for
        tax year 2019.

Note: The amounts shown in this report include the surplus or deficit in the Social Security trust funds and the net cash
flow of the Postal Service, which are off-budget. Numbers may not sum to totals because of rounding.

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