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1 Monthly Budget Review for April 2018 1 (May 7, 2018)

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                                                                                       May 7, 2018





             Monthly Budget Review for April 2018


The federal budget deficit was $382 billion for the first seven months of fiscal year 2018, the Congressional
Budget Office estimates, $37 billion more than the shortfall recorded during the same period last year.
Revenues  and outlays were higher, by 4 percent and 5 percent, respectively, than they were during the first
seven months of fiscal year 2017.

As was the case last year, this year's outlays were affected by shifts in the timing of certain payments that
otherwise would have been due on a weekend. If not for those shifts, outlays and the deficit through April
would have been larger, by roughly $40 billion, both this year and last year-but the year-to-year changes
would not have been very different.


                                    Budget  Totals, October-April
                                            Billions of Dollars

                           Actual, FY 2017        Preliminary. FY 2018     Estimated Change

          Receipts              1,929                   2.012                    83
          Outlays               2,273                   2.394                   121

          Deficit (-)           -344                    -382                    -37
          Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of the Treasury. Based on the Monthly Treasury
          Statement for March 2017 and the Daily Treasury Statements for April 2018.
          FY = fiscal year.



Total Receipts:  Up  by 4 Percent   in the First Seven Months   of Fiscal Year  2018
Receipts for the first seven months of fiscal year 2018 totaled $2,012 billion, CBO estimates-$83 billion
more than the amount during the same period last year.

Receipts collected in April were $30 billion to $40 billion larger than CBO expected when it prepared the
estimates reported in The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2018 to 2028, which it issued on April 9. The
bulk of that difference stems from larger-than-anticipated payments of individual income taxes. Those
payments  were mostly related to economic activity in 2017 and may reflect stronger-than-expected income
growth in that year. Part of the strength in receipts also may reflect larger-than-anticipated payments for
economic  activity in 2018. The reasons for the added revenues will be better understood as more detailed
information becomes available later this year.

The net increase in receipts from last fiscal year resulted from changes in collections from the following
sources, according to CBO's estimates:

    m   Individual income and payroll (social insurance) taxes together rose by $127 billion
        (or 8 percent).


Note: The amounts shown in this report include the surplus or deficit in the Social Security trust funds and the net cash
flow of the Postal Service, which are off-budget. Numbers may not add up to totals because of rounding.

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