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1 1 (August 12, 2019)

handle is hein.congrec/cboimpgnp0001 and id is 1 raw text is: CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE Phillip L. Swagel, Director U.S. Congress Washington, DC 20515 August 12, 2019 Honorable Steve Womack Ranking Member Committee on the Budget U.S. House of Representatives Washington, DC 20515 RE: The Impact of Various Levels of Federal Debt on GNP and GNP per Capita Dear Congressman: In response to your request, the Congressional Budget Office is providing additional information about its extended baseline projections and three alternative scenarios that the agency analyzed in June in The 2019 Long-Term Budget Outlook.' Specifically, CBO is providing estimates of gross national product (GNP) and GNP per capita in all four cases. The Extended Baseline Projections CBO's extended baseline projections incorporate the assumption that current laws generally do not change. They are consistent with the 10-year baseline budget projections that CBO published in May 2019 and the economic forecast that the agency published in January 2019. Current laws underlying those 10-year baseline budget projections reflect the lower caps on discretionary appropriations for 2020 and 2021 that were in place before the enactment of the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2019 (Public Law 116-37) earlier this month. The extended baseline projections extend most of the concepts underlying the 10-year budget projections for an additional 20 years, and they reflect the macroeconomic effects of projected fiscal policy over the entire 30-year period. In the extended baseline projections, federal debt held by the public equals 144 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2049 (see Figure 1). The Extended Alternative Fiscal Scenario In what CBO calls its extended alternative fiscal scenario, certain major policies that were in place in June 2019 but scheduled to change under current law at that 1 Congressional Budget Office, The 2019 Long-Term Budget Outlook (June 2019), www.cbo. goL/p~ublication/5533 1. www.cbo.gov

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