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1 How CBO Defines and Estimates Health Insurance Coverage for People under Age 65 1 (May 2018)

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                                                                                          MAY  2018






      How CBO Defines and Estimates Health

Insurance Coverage for People Under Age 65


In the United States, most people under age 65 are
covered by private health insurance that they or their
family members obtain through their employers (referred
to as employment-based, or group, coverage). A smaller
number  of people buy private health insurance individ-
ually (through what is known as the nongroup market).
Nongroup  policies are available through the health
insurance marketplaces established under the Affordable
Care Act (ACA) or outside of them, through brokers or
directly from insurers. Two of the major sources of public
insurance coverage for people under 65 are Medicaid and
the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP).

The federal government subsidizes private and public
insurance coverage through various tax preferences and
federal programs. Because those subsidies affect the
federal budget in many ways, defining what constitutes
coverage and estimating health insurance coverage for
people under 65 are important steps in the process of
preparing the Congressional Budget Office's baseline
budget projections. The most recent year for which
actual coverage data are available serves as the starting
point for CBO's projections of health insurance cov-
erage. This report provides details about that starting
point. Specifically, the report:

  Describes how CBO  defines health insurance
   coverage (private and public) for people under
   65 who are not institutionalized and who are not
   members  of the active-duty military;

a  Explains how the agency estimates the number of
   insured and uninsured people in that population
   for the most recent year for which data on actual
   coverage exist; and


*  Describes where CBO  obtains the data to estimate
   coverage, the limitations of those sources, and how
   the agency adjusts its estimates because of those
   limitations.

(For a discussion of related work by CBO and other
researchers, see the Appendix.)

How   Does  CBO  Define  Private  Insurance
Coverage?
Health insurance policies vary widely, ranging from those
that offer substantial coverage for a variety of health care
services to those that are limited in scope or offer a small
amount  of coverage. Therefore, in preparing any estimate
of the number of people covered by health insurance,
it is useful and important to identify where to draw the
line when distinguishing between policies that provide
comprehensive coverage and those that do not.

An important function of insurance is to provide finan-
cial protection against high-cost, low-probability events
(such as car accidents, fires, or floods). Consistent with
that notion, in the context of health care costs, CBO
broadly defines private health insurance coverage as a
policy that, at a minimum, covers high-cost medical
events and various services, including those provided by
physicians and hospitals. This type of coverage is often
referred to as comprehensive major medical coverage.
The agency grounds its coverage estimates on that
widely accepted definition, which encompasses most
private health insurance plans offered in the group and
nongroup  markets. The definition may include some
short-term, limited-duration policies that provide com-
prehensive major medical coverage for a specified period
and plans with very high deductibles. The desirability
or adequacy of such coverage will vary on the basis of

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