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1 The Cost of the Navy's New Frigate 1 (October 13, 2020)

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                                                                           OCTOBER 2020








The Cost of the Navy's New Frigate


On  April 30, 2020, the Navy awarded Fincantieri
Marinette Marine a contract to build the Navy's new sur-
face combatant, a guided missile frigate long designated
as FFG(X).1 The contract guarantees that Fincantieri will
build the lead ship (the first ship designed for a class) and
gives the Navy options to build as many as nine addi-
tional ships. In this report, the Congressional Budget
Office examines the potential costs if the Navy exercises
all of those options.

-  CBO   estimates the cost of the 10 FFG(X) ships
   would be $12.3 billion in 2020 (inflation-adjusted)
   dollars, about $1.2 billion per ship, on the basis of
   its own weight-based cost model. That amount is
   40 percent more than the Navy's estimate.

   The Navy  estimates that the 10 ships would
   cost $8.7 billion in 2020 dollars, an average of
   $870 million per ship.

   If the Navy's estimate turns out to be accurate,
   the FFG(X)  would be the least expensive surface
   combatant  program of the past 50 years (measured
   in cost per thousand tons when the ship is
   mostly empty), even in comparison to much less
   capable ships.



1. Navy Secretary Kenneth Braithwaite announced on
   October 7, 2020, that the first FFG(X) would be named USS
   Constellation and carry the designation FFG-62.


Several factors support the Navy's estimate:

-  The FFG(X)  is based on a design that has been in
   production for many years.

-  Little if any new technology is being developed for it.

   The contractor is an experienced builder of small
   surface combatants.

   An independent  estimate within the Department of
   Defense (DoD)  was lower than the Navy's estimate.

Other factors suggest the Navy's estimate is too low:

-  The costs of all surface combatants since 1970, as
   measured per thousand tons, were higher.

   Historically the Navy has almost always
   underestimated the cost of the lead ship, and a more
   expensive lead ship generally results in higher costs
   for the follow-on ships.

-  Even when  major parts of the ship's estimated cost are
   known,  as they were for the Arleigh Burke destroyer,
   costs have turned out to be higher than initially
   estimated.

   Compared  with the design on which it is based, the
   FFG(X)  will be more densely built and will have
   somewhat  more complex  weapon  systems.


Notes: All years referred to in this report are federal fiscal years, which run from October 1 to September 30 and are designated by
the calendar year in which they end. Unless this report indicates otherwise, all costs are expressed in 2020 dollars. Numbers in the
text, tables, and figures may not add up to totals because of rounding.

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