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1 Analysis of Effects on Social Security of H.R. 860, the Social Security 2100 Act 1 (September 13, 2019)

handle is hein.congrec/cboalyefss0001 and id is 1 raw text is: CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE Phillip L. Swagel, Director U.S. Congress Washington, DC 20515 September 13, 2019 Honorable Kevin Brady Ranking Member Committee on Ways and Means U.S. House of Representatives Washington, DC 20515 Re: Analysis of Effects on Social Security of H.R. 860, the Social Security 2100 Act Dear Mr. Ranking Member: In response to your request, the Congressional Budget Office and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) have analyzed the budgetary, financial, and long-term distributional effects of enacting H.R. 860, the Social Security 2100 Act, as introduced on January 30, 2019. The bill would increase benefits and raise Social Security payroll taxes. As shown in Table 1, CBO and JCT estimate that over the current baseline projection period (2020 to 2029), enactment of H.R. 860 would: Increase Social Security outlays by $386 billion; Increase federal revenues by $911 billion, the net effect of a decrease in on- budget revenues of $719 billion and an increase in off-budget revenues of $1.629 trillion; and Reduce the federal deficit by $525 billion (excluding any effects on direct spending for programs other than Social Security). To help the House and Senate Budget Committees determine whether certain budgetary points of order apply to legislation, CBO typically provides information in cost estimates about whether a bill would increase on-budget deficits by more than $5 billion in any of the four decades after the baseline projection period.1 Although H.R. 860 would reduce the overall federal deficit over that period, CBO estimates that enacting the bill would increase on-budget deficits by hundreds of billions of dollars in each decade. Those increased deficits would occur because a portion of income taxes paid on Social Security 1. The revenues and outlays of the Social Security trust funds and the net cash flow of the Postal Service are classified as off-budget.

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