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Letter from Dan L. Crippen, Director Congressional Budget Office to John Warner with attachment: The Effects Of The Military Retirement Reform Act Of 1986 On Midcareer Retention (Feb. 1999) [i] (March 1999)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo9966 and id is 1 raw text is: March 2, 1999

Honorable John W. Warner
Chairman
Committee on Armed Services
United States Senate
Washington, D.C. 20510
Dear Mr. Chairman:
As requested in Senator Thurmond's letter of October 9, 1998, the
Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has examined the effects of the 1986 Military
Retirement Reform Act (known as REDUX) on the retention of military personnel.
CBO concludes that the retirement changes enacted in 1986 appear to be having little
effect on the midcareer retention of officers or enlisted personnel. A preliminary
summary of CBO's analysis is attached. That analysis focuses on the effects of
REDUX on retention; it does not address whether the services are experiencing
serious problems in retaining midcareer personnel. It finds only that if such problems
do exist, they are probably not the result of REDUX.
The general lack ofa statistically significant relationship between REDUX and
retention is not surprising. In 1985, CBO testified that the law might reduce the
career content of the enlisted force (the percentage of that force in its second or later
enlistment) by about 3 percent. In CBO's current analysis, such modest predicted
effects could easily be swamped by other factors. Given the level of statistical
uncertainty that surrounds CBO's estimates, the possibility that the new retirement
system is having a small negative effect on retention cannot be ruled out.
Nonetheless, these results suggest that REDUX has not had a large negative
impact on retention among the first groups of personnel to enter under that system.
The findings raise questions about the benefits of repealing the law. Increasing
retirement benefits might not stem a decline in retention if that decline resulted from
factors such as the quality of military health care and housing, the level of pay and
bonuses, or the frequency of deployments. Instead, such increases could divert
resources away from more cost-effective forms of compensation or other pressing

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