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Contribution of MX to the Strategic Force Modernization Program 1 (November 1982)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo9790 and id is 1 raw text is: CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE NOVEMBER 24, 1982 CONTRIBUTION OF MX TO THE STRATEGIC FORCE MODERNIZATION PROGRAM The Administration has decided to base the MX missile in the so- called closely spaced basing (CSB), or dense-pack mode. The CSB scheme will place 100 MX missiles in vertical shelters that are super- hardened to withstand large nuclear blasts. The shelters will be approxi- mately 1,800 feet apart in a narrow array about 14 miles long. If the Congress approves the basing decision, MX in CSB will be deployed in Wyoming, with the first missiles available sometime in 1986. According to Air Force estimates, MX in CSB would cost $26 billion in fiscal year 1982 dollars. The Air Force contends that this new basing system will provide a measure of survivability to the MX missiles because of the phenomenon of fratricide. Incoming Soviet warheads would destroy other Soviet war- heads that were not detonated at precisely the same instant; the radiation, heat, blast, and debris created by explosion of the first warheads would destroy or blow off course follow-on warheads. MX missiles in superhard silos would be able to survive this destruction, to be launched later when the environment had cleared up. MX would survive in CSB for only a matter of hours, however, since subsequent strikes could be launched against surviving shelters once the debris and dust had settled. The technical claims for the survival of MX in CSB have been, and Likely will continue to be, widely disputed. Press reports as of last September indicated that the Air Force expected 50 to 70 percent of the MX force to survive if placed in CSB. Information in the press after the President's decision suggested that the Air Force places survival prospects at 70 percent. On the other hand, some analysts clearly believe that few If any of the missiles would survive. It is beyond the technical competence of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) to make an independent assessment of MX survivability in dense pack. For purposes of this analysis, CBO assumed that 60 percent of the missiles, the mid-point of the earlier range, would survive. A discussion at the end of the paper notes the Impact of assuming higher or lower survival rates. This paper summarizes CBO's analysis of the contribution of the MX missile to U.S. strategic capabilities, assuming that closely spaced basing allows a substantial number of MX missiles to survive. SIZE OF THE MX CONTRIBUTION WOULD DEPEND ON TOTAL ADMINISTRATION PROGRAM Key Systems The contribution of the MX missile would be relative to that of other strategic forces in the Administration's plan. Most of the plan is publiclyt available, though some details are not. The following programs are assumed to be part of the Administration's strategic buildup: o Deployment by 1989 of 100 MX missiles In the closely spaced basing mode;

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