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Letter from Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Director to John M. Spratt Jr. regarding costs of four illustrative scenarios for the occupation of Iraq 1 (October 2003)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo9720 and id is 1 raw text is: October 28, 2003 Honorable John M. Spratt Jr. Ranking Member Committee on the Budget U.S. House of Representatives Washington, DC 20515 Dear Congressman: In response to your request of October 9, 2003, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has estimated the costs of four illustrative scenarios for the occupation of Iraq. The scenarios are based on the specifications in your request, as well as CBO's current understanding of planned force-rotation schedules. For the scenarios you outlined, CBO estimates the cost of occupying Iraq could range from $85 billion to $200 billion over the 2004- 2013 period, depending on the size and length of the occupation. All estimates assume the $52 billion requested by the Administration for the occupation of Iraq in fiscal year 2004 will be provided without significant changes, as per the instructions in your request. The estimates exclude costs associated with reconstruction or classified intelligence activities, since we do not possess enough data to appropriately quantify these costs. As requested by your staff, the estimates also do not include costs associated with Operation Enduring Freedom, Operation Noble Eagle, and other activities associated with the war on terrorism. Details regarding CBO's estimates are discussed below. Estimates of Occupation Scenarios CBO has estimated the cost of four illustrative scenarios for the occupation of Iraq. The length of the occupation and force levels associated with each scenario are based on the guidelines prescribed in your request letter. Assumptions about air operations, force rotations, and the number of mobilized reservists are based on the most recent data provided by the Department of Defense (DoD), as well as CBO's analysis of past contingency operations.

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