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Letter from Dan L. Crippen to Kent Conrad and John M. Spratt Jr. with attachment: Estimated Costs of a Potential Conflict with Iraq [i] (September 2002)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo9712 and id is 1 raw text is: September 30, 2002 Honorable Kent Conrad Chairman Committee on the Budget United States Senate Washington, DC 20510 Honorable John M. Spratt, Jr. Ranking Member Committee on the Budget U.S. House of Representatives Washington, DC 20515 Dear Mr. Chairman and Dear Congressman: In response to your request of September 20, 2002, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has estimated the cost of activities related to possible military operations in Iraq. Estimates of the total cost of a military conflict with Iraq and such a conflict's aftermath are highly uncertain. They depend on many factors that are unknown at this time, including the size of the actual force that is deployed, the strategy to be used, the duration of the conflict, the number of casualties, the equipment lost, and the need for reconstruction of Iraq's infrastructure. Of the many options being discussed for force structures, CBO examined two representative examples that vary in their emphasis on ground or air forces. Under the assumptions of those examples, CBO estimated that the incremental costs of deploying a force to the Persian Gulf (the costs that would be incurred above those budgeted for routine operations) would be between $9 billion and $13 billion. Prosecuting a war would cost between $6 billion and $9 billion a month-although CBO cannot estimate how long such a war is likely to last. After hostilities end, the costs to return U.S. forces to their home bases would range between $5 billion and $7 billion. Further, the incremental cost of an occupation following combat operations could vary from about $1 billion to $4 billion a month. The attachment to this letter describes the basis for CBO's estimates, which were prepared by Matthew Schmit and David Newman of CBO's Budget Analysis Division; and by Greg Kiley, Paul Rehmus, and Adam Talaber of CBO's National Security Division. If you wish further details, we would be pleased to provide them. CBO's staff contacts are Jo Ann Vines (226-2840) and J. Michael Gilmore (226-2900). Sincerely, Dan L. Crippen Director Attachment

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