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Memorandum: Budgetary Impact of Bush/Yeltsin Accord 1 (June 1992)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo9682 and id is 1 raw text is: C CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE U.S. Congress Washington, DC 20515 Robert D. Reischauer Director June 29, 1992 MEMORANDUM FOR TIfE RECORD FROM: Ray Hall Defense Cost Unit (202) 226-2840 SUBJECT: Budgetary Impact of Bush/Yeltsin Accord President Bush and Russian President Yeltsin met in Washington on June 16, 1992 and agreed in principle to the most drastic arms cuts of the nuclear age. The agreement, referred to here as the Bush/Yeltsin Accord, proposes cuts of about two- thirds to current U.S. warhead totals and would cut an additional 5,000 warheads compared to the reductions from the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) signed last year, but may not guarantee large budgetary savings. Most of the additional cuts in warheads proposed by the new accord would be accomplished by simply reducing the number of warheads carried by existing missiles and bombers. The number of strategic missiles and bombers deployed under the Bush/Yeltsin Accord may not differ significantly from the numbers deployed under START, resulting in very small savings of about $100 million annually. By 2003, under the accord, the United States would have 3,500 warheads-- 18 Trident nuclear submarines will carry 1,728 warheads, the strategic bombers consisting of an uncertain mix of B-2, B-1 and B-52 aircraft will carry 1,272 warheads, and 500 Minuteman land-based missiles will each carry a single warhead. The uncertainty about the bomber mix is because the accord would not count up to 100 bombers that were never equipped for nuclear cruise missiles and that are reoriented to conventional roles. This exclusionary clause-in addition to the 75 non- nuclear bombers allowed under the START treaty-provides significant flexibility for the United States to maintain its current strategic bomber composition, but unfortunately keeps the estimate of savings low. Savings Duerto the Bush/Yeltsin Accord. CBO estimates that the planned reductions in the U.S. strategic nuclear arsenal as announced in June by President Bush and Russian President Yeltsin may save only $100 million annually, with very little savings before 1997. As shown in Table 1, these savings would come from retiring the 50 MX missiles that the Administration has said it will eliminate to comply with the accord. Savings are relative to the Administration's fiscal year 1993 budget request for nuclear forces and are expressed in constant 1992 dollars.

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