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Memorandum: Biased Selection in Medicare's HMOs 1 (July 1996)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo9194 and id is 1 raw text is: CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE                                                         June E. O'Neill
U.S. CONGRESS                                                                       Director
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20515
MEMORANDUM                                                    July 17, 1996
TO:           Health Staff
FROM:         Sandra Christensen
SUBJECT:      BIASED SELECTION IN MEDICARE'S HMOs
A recent study commissioned by the Association of American Health Plans and done
by Price Waterhouse (PW) claims to show that health maintenance organizations
(HMOs) in 1992 experienced very little biased selection among Medicare enrollees.'
However, the findings in the PW study are not credible because of flaws in the data
and methods used. Adjustment for obvious biases in the PW results would more than
quadruple its estimate of favorable selection.
Although the quantitative extent of selection bias is uncertain, CBO's analysis of
program data indicates that Medicare's HMOs continue to experience favorable
selection not fully accounted for by the risk adjusters used to set payment rates.
Research underway at the Office of Research in the Health Care Financing
Administration and at the Physician Payment Review Commission will add to current
information on this issue in the near future.
BACKGROUND
Medicare beneficiaries may opt to receive care from HMOs instead of the fee-for-
service (FFS) sector, and HMOs may choose to enroll Medicare beneficiaries either
on a risk basis or a cost basis. Because cost-based HMOs are reimbursed by
Medicare much like fee-for-service providers, the discussion of HMOs here excludes
cost-based plans. Risk-based HMOs are paid a predetermined amount for each
Jack Rodgers and Karen Smith, Is There Biased Selection in Medicare HMOs?
Health Policy Economics Group, Price Waterhouse LLP, Washington, D.C. (March
I14, I1996)

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