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Monthly Budget Review: Fiscal Year 2007 [i] (January-December 2007)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo8664 and id is 1 raw text is: I Based on the Monthly Treasury Statement for November and the Daily Treasury Statements for December MONTHLY BUDGET REVIEW Fiscal Year 2007 ob A Congressional Budget Office Analysis January 8, 2007 The federal budget deficit was about $85 billion in the first quarter of fiscal year 2007, CBO estimates-about $35 billion less than in the same period last year. Revenues have risen by 8 percent compared with their level in the first three months of 2006, substantially outpacing the 1 percent growth in outlays. Later this month, CBO will issue new budget projections for 2007 and the following 10 years. NOVEMBER RESULTS (Billions of dollars) Preliminary Estimate Actual Difference Receipts 146 146 -1 Outlays 219 221 2 Deficit (-) -73 -76 -3 Sources: Department of the Treasury; CBO. The Treasury reported a deficit of $76 billion for November, which is $3 billion more than CBO had projected on the basis of the Daily Treasury Statements. The difference was primarily due to a $2.6 billion error in the Treasury's reporting of outlays for the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC). In the absence of that error, the deficit would have been about the same as CBO anticipated. ESTIMATES FOR DECEMBER (Billions of dollars) Actual Preliminary Estimated FY2006 FY2007 Change Receipts 242 260 18 Outlays 231 220 -11 Surplus 11 40 29 Sources: Department of the Treasury; GBO. The surplus in December was $40 billion, CBO estimates, which is about $29 billion more than the surplus recorded in December 2005. Revenues were 7 percent above their December 2005 level, and spending was about 5 percent below outlays in the same month last year. Receipts in December are generally higher than those in many other months because of quarterly payments of corporate income taxes and greater withholding for individual income taxes as a result of year-end bonuses and additional seasonal employment. Total receipts in December 2006 grew by about $18 billion, or 7 percent, from the previous December's, CBO estimates. That growth stemmed primarily from a $13 billion (19 percent) increase in corporate tax receipts. Most of those receipts came from the final quarterly payment of estimated taxes by most corporations for tax year 2006. Withholding for payroll and. income taxes accounted for almost all of the remaining growth in receipts-about $5 billion, or 3 percent. The December increase in withholding was dampened because December 2006 had one fewer business day than the previous December. OutlIays were $11 b i Ii on l ower th is Decem ber than in th e same month last year, CBO estimates. The largest factor contributing to that decline was the receipt of $12.7 billion from last summer's auction of licenses to use the electromagnetic spectrum. Spending by the Department of Homeland Security was about $4 billion lower than in December 2005, when there was substantial spending for hurricane relief. Outlays for international assistance were down by about $3 billion compared with the same month last year because annual payments to Egypt and Israel that occurred last December were not made in the first quarter of fiscal year 2007. In addition, the spending reported for the PBGC in December 2006 will be reduced by $2.6 billion to correct the accounting error in November. BUDGET TOTALS THROUGH DECEMBER (Billions of dollars) Actual Preliminary Estimated FY2006 FY2007 Change Receipts 530 573 43 Outlays 650 658 8 Deficit (-) -119 -85 35 Sources: Department of the Treasury; CBO. CBO estimnates that the government recorded a deficit of $85 billion for the first three months of fiscal year 2007 about $35 billion less than the deficit recorded for the same period last year. Revenues grew by $43 billion, far outpacing outlays, which rose by $8 billion. Note: Unless otherwise indicated, the figures in this report include the Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service fund, which are uff-budget. Numrbers mray riot add up to totals because of rounding. I

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