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Based on the Monthly Treasury Statement for November
and the Daily Treasury Statements for December
Im
January 6, 2006
The federal budget deficit was about $119 billion in the first quarter of fiscal year 2006, CBO estimates, about the same
as the $118 billion shortfall recorded during the same period last year. Tax revenues have continued to grow steadily,
but spending for flood insurance and other disaster relief in the wake of Hurricane Katrina added substantially to outlays
in the first quarter. CBO will issue new budget projections for 2006 and the following 10 years later this month.
NOVEMBER RESULTS
(Billions of dollars)
Preliminary
Estimate Actual Difference
Receipts 138 139*
Outlays 221 222 1
Deficit (-) -82 -83 -1
Sources: Department of the Treasury; CBO0.
Note: *= between zero and $500 million.
The Treasury reported a deficit of $83 billion for
November, about $1 billion more than CBO projected on
the basis of the Daily Treasury Statements. Revenues
were about the same as CBO anticipated, while outlays
were $1 billion more than expected.
ESTIMATES FOR DECEMBER
(Billions of dollars)
Actual Preliminary Estimated
FY2005 FY2006 Change
Receipts 216 242 27
Outlays 219 231 12
Surplus or Deficit() -3 12 15
Sources: Department of the Treasury; CBO0.
In December, most corporations make their quarterly
payments of corporate income taxes, and withheld
individual income taxes are higher than in many other
months (because of year-end bonuses that employees
receive and a boost in seasonal employment).
Consequently, December is generally a relatively
favorable month for the federal budget.
The surplus in December 2005 was about $12 billion,
CBO estimates, a swing of $15 billion from the $3 billion
deficit recorded in December 2004. Revenues were 12
percent above their December 2004 level, double the 6
percent growth in outlays.
CBO estimates that revenues rose by about $27 billion in
December compared with their level in the same month
last year. Receipts from corporate income taxes grew by
$18 billion, or 33 percent, continuing their strong growth
of the past two years. The payment in December
represents the final quarterly payment of estimated taxes by
most corporations for tax (calendar) year 2005.
Withholding for individual income and social insurance
(payroll) taxes accounted for most of the rest of the
revenue growth relative to the previous December,
increasing by $7 billion, or about 5 percent. That rate of
increase was diminished by the fact that the month
contained one fewer business day than it did last year.
Outlays were $12 billion greater this December than last
December, CBO estimates. About one-quarter of that
growth was due to spending by the Department of
Homeland Security for expenses related to hurricane relief
and recovery. Outlays for the Department of Defense,
Social Security, Medicare, and net interest on the public
debt grew by $2 billion to $3 billion each after adjusting
for shifts in the timing of certain payments.
BUDGET TOTALS THROUGH DECEMBER
(Billions of dollars)
Actual Preliminary Estimated
FY2005 FY2006 Change
Receipts 487 531 44
Outlays 605 649 44
Deficit (-) -118 -119 -1
Sources: Department of the Treasury; CBO.
(JBU estimates that the government recorded a deficit of
$119 billion for the first three months of fiscal year 2006,
about $1 billion more than the deficit recorded for the same
period last year. Revenues and outlays each grew by about
$44 billion.
MONTHLY BUDGET REVIEW
Fiscal Year 2006
A Congressional Budget Office Analysis
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, the figures in this report include the Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service fund,
which are off-budget. Numbers may not add up to totals because of rounding.
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