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Monthly Budget Review: Fiscal Year 2004 [i] (January-December 2004)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo8661 and id is 1 raw text is: I

Based on the Monthly Treasury Statement for November
and the Daily Treasury Statements for December

I

January 7, 2004

The federal budget deficit was about $126 billion during the first three months of fiscal year 2004, CBO estimates, $18
billion more than the shortfall recorded over the same period last year. Revenues have risen by almost 3 percent
compared with their level in the first quarter of fiscal year 2003, but outlays have grown by more than 5 percent. CBO
will issue new budget projections for 2004 and the following 10 years later this month.

NOVEMBER RESULTS
(In billions of dollars)
Preliminary
Estimate   Actual    Difference
Receipts            118       118*
Outlays             162       161        -1
Deficit (-)        -44         -43        1
NOTE: *= between zero and $500 million.
SOURCES: Department of the Treasury; CBO.
The Treasury reported a deficit of $43 billion in Novem-
ber 2003, about $1 billion less than CBO's projection
based on the Daily Treasury Statements. Although reve-
nues were the same as CBO anticipated, outlays were
about $1 billion lower than expected.
ESTIMATES FOR DECEMBER
(In billions of dollars)
Actual  Preliminary  Estimated
FY2003    FY2004      Change
Receipts           183       185           2
Outlays             178      199          21
Surplus or Deficit(-  5       -13        -18
SOURCES: Department of the Treasury; CBO.
The deficit in December 2003 was about $13 billion,
CBO estimates, a swing of $18 billion relative to the $5
billion surplus for the same month in 2002. Outlays
were about 12 percent above their December 2002 level,
and revenues were 1 percent higher.
CBO estimates that receipts in December were about
$185 billion, an increase of $2 billion from the amount
in December 2002. Withholding of income and payroll
taxes rose by about $4 billion. Although such receipts

were boosted by an extra business day in December 2003,
CBO estimates that they were diminished by a similar
amount because income tax rates were lower in 2003. In
December, most corporations made their fourth quarterly
payment of income taxes for tax year 2003. Those pay-
ments totaled nearly the same amount as in December
2002, despite the rapid run-up in profits during the past
year. In addition, refunds of corporate income taxes
increased by about $3 billion, reducing net receipts.
Of the $21 billion increase in outlays, roughly half
occurred because December 1, 2002, fell on a weekend.
As a result, about $ 10 billion in payments that ordinarily
would have been made on the first day of the month were
instead made at the end of November. In the absence of
last year's payment shift, outlays for December would
have grown by about $ 10 billion from fiscal year 2003 to
2004. After adjusting for the payment shift, defense
spending was up by more than $4 billion compared with
its level last December, and outlays for the three largest
entitlement programs (Social Security, Medicare, and
Medicaid) together grew by about $6 billion.
BUDGET TOTALS THROUGH DECEMBER
(In billions of dollars)
Actual   Preliminary  Estimated
FY2003    FY2004     Change
Receipts              427        439        12
Outlays               536        565        30
Deficit (-)           -108      -126       -18
SOURCES: Department of the Treasury; CBO.
The federal government recorded a deficit of $126 billion
for the first quarter of fiscal year 2004, CBO estimates,
about $18 billion more than for the same period last year.
Although revenues increased by $12 billion compared
with their level last year, outlays grew more, rising by $30
billion.

NOTE: Unless otherwise indicated, the numbers in this report include the Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service fund,
which are off-budget. Numbers may not add up to totals because of rounding.

MONTHLY        UGTRVIEW
Fiscal Year 2004
A Congressional B'tudget Office Analysis

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