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Monthly Budget Review: Fiscal Year 2002 [i] (January-December 2002)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo8659 and id is 1 raw text is: I Based on the Monthly Treasury Statement for November and the Daily Treasury Statements for December MONTHLY BUDGET REVIEW Fiscal Year 2002 A Congressional Budget Office Analysis January 9, 2002 The federal budget deficit was about $40 billion during the first quarter of fiscal year 2002, CBO estimates, a substantially larger shortfall than those recorded in fiscal years 2000 ($20 billion) and 2001 ($2 billion). The deficit would have been greater but for the shift of $23 billion in corporate income tax payments from September 2001 to October 200 1. INOVEMBER RESULTS (In billions of dollars) Preliminary Estimate Actual Difference Receipts 121 121 1 Outlays 175 176 1 Deficit -54 -54* SOURCES: Department of the Treasury; CBO. NOTE: *= between zero and $500 million. The Treasury reported a deficit of $54.3 billion in November, about the same as CBO's projection based on the Daily Treasury Statements. Both revenues and outlays were slightly higher than CBO had anticipated. ESTIMATES FOR DECEMBER (In billions of dollars) Actual Preliminary Estimated FY2001 FY2002 Change Receipts 200 186 -15 Outlays 168 162 -6 Surplus 33 24 -9 SOURCES: Department of the Treasury; CBO. The government ran a surplus of $24 billion in December, CBO estimates, $9 billion less than the surplus in December 2000. Although outlays were an estimated $6 billion less than they were last year, re- ceipts fell $15 billion short of last year's figure. The decline in revenues occurred because of continued weakness in corporate income tax receipts, which fell by $15 billion, or almost 30 percent, compared with their level last December. For each of the major quarterly payments made by corporations during calendar year 2001, receipts were substantially below the previous year's figure. Receipts from other sources were generally close to the amounts of December 2000. An extra Monday during December 2001 pushed up receipts from withholding taxes this year, but that increase was partly offset by the effects of the tax cuts enacted last May in the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 (EGTRRA). The decline in outlays relative to December 2000 occurred because December 1, 2001, fell on a weekend. As a result, roughly $11 billion in payments that would ordinarily be made on the first day of the month were instead made at the end of November. (A similar shift occurred in payments that were due to be made on Janu- ary 1, but that shift occurs every year.) In the absence of the December 1 payment shift, outlays for the month would have grown by about $6 billion from 2000 to 2001. BUDGET TOTALS THROUGH DECEMBER (In billions of dollars) October-December Estimated FY2001 FY2002 Change Receipts 462 464 2 Outlays 464 504 40 Deficit -2 -40 -38 SOURCES: Department of the Treasury; CBO. The government recorded a deficit of about $40 billion for the first three months of fiscal year 2002, CBO0 estimates-about $38 billion more than for the same period last year. Receipts were slightly higher than during the first quarter of last year, but outlays were about $40 billion higher. Adjusted for shifts in the tim- ing of certain receipts and expenditures, the first-quarter deficit was the largest since fiscal year 1996. NOTE: Unless otherwise indicated, the figures in this report include the Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service fund, which are off-budget. Numbers may not add up to totals because of rounding. I

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