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Monthly Budget Review: Fiscal Year 2001 [i] (January-December 2001)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo8658 and id is 1 raw text is: I Based on the Monthly Treasury Statement for November and the Daily Treasury Statements for December MONTHLY BUDGET REVIEW Fiscal Year 2001 A Congressional Budget Office Analysis January 9, 2001 With an apparent slowing of the economy, tax receipts grew at a slower rate in the first quarter of fiscal year 2001 than they did over the previous year. Nevertheless, by CBO's estimate, the deficit for the first quarter of 2001 was about $17 billion less than the deficit for the same quarter last year. CBO will issue updated budget projections for 2001 and the following 10 years at the end of January. NOVEMBER RESULTS (In billions of dollars) Preliminary Estimate Actual Difference Receipts 126 126* Outlays 151 149 -2 Deficit (-) -25 -24 1 SOURCES: Department ofthe Treasury; Congressional Budget Office. NOTE: *= less than $0.5 billion. The Treasury reported a deficit of $23.7 billion in November, about $1 billion less than CBO had projected on the basis of the Daily Treasury Statements. Outlays were about $2 billion less than CBO had estimated, but revenues were also a bit lower. ESTIMATES FOR DECEMBER (In billions of dollars) Actual Preliminary Estimated FY2000 FY2001 Change Receipts 201 201* Outlays 168 169 1 Surplus 33 32 -1 SOURCES: Department of the Treasury; Congressional Budget Office. NOTE: *= less than $0.5 billion. The surplus in December was about $32 billion, CBO estimates, almost identical to the $33 billion surplus re- corded last December. Revenues showed no growth from year to year-but that comparison is distorted by two effects of the calendar. The growth of revenues was held down by roughly $15 billion because this December had two fewer business days than last December and because some people accelerated tax payments from Jan- uary 2000 into December 1999, perhaps out of concern about possible Y2K problems. After accounting for those two factors, revenues were actually about 7 percent higher this December than last December. Withholding of individual income and payroll taxes was roughly 5 percent higher in December, when adjusted for those calendar effects. In the prior nine months, growth from the previous year fluctuated between 7 per- cent and 10 percent. Anemic growth in personal income from bonuses in the financial industry may have contrib- uted to the relative weakness in withholding in Decem- ber. Total outlays also changed little from last December to this one. Spending increases in many areas of the bud- get were offset by decreases in some major programs. Outlays for defense, Medicare, and Medicaid were lower than last December, partly because of the fewer business days this December and partly because outlays last De- cember were unusually high, reflecting accelerated pay- ments to avoid Y2K problems. Agriculture spending was also lower this year. BUDGET TOTALS THROUGH DECEMBER (In billions of dollars) October-December Estimated FY2000 FY2001 Change Receipts 444 461 18 Outlays 464 465 1 Deficit (-) -20 -3 17 SOURCES: Department of the Treasury; Congressional Budget Office. The deficit for the first three months of fiscal year 2001 was about $3 billion, CBO estimates, an improvement of $17 billion over the deficit recorded for that period last year. Receipts were about $18 billion higher than in the first quarter of fiscal year 2000, but outlays were only $1 billion higher. Because of the calendar effects discussed above, those numbers understate the rate of increase in NOTE: Unless otherwise indicated, the figures in this report include the Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service fund, wvhich are off-budget. Numbers may not add up to totals because of rounding. I

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