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Monthly Budget Review: Fiscal Year 1999 [i] (January-December 1999)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo8656 and id is 1 raw text is: Based on the Monthly Treasury Statement for November and the Daily Treasury Statements for December January 7, 1999 Receipts for October through December (the first quarter of fiscal year 1999) were up 6.6 percent over collections for the same period last year, a much lower growth rate than was posted a year ago. Outlays in December were boosted by more than $27 billion in early payments of January Social Security benefits because of a quirk in the calendar. Excluding those payments, the first-quarter deficit was about $12 billion below last year's level. NOVEMBER RESULTS~ (In billions of dollars) November November Estimate Actual Difference Receipts 113.5 114.0 0.5 Outlays 131.0 131.1 0.1 Deficit() -17.5 -17.1 0.4 SOURCE: Department of the Treasury and Congressional Budget Office. a. Includes Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service fund, which are off-budget. The actual November deficit of $17.1 billion reported by the Treasury Department last month was quite close to CBO's estimate, which was based on daily Treasury statements for the month. CBO ESTIMATES FOR DECEMBERa (In billions of dollars) December December Estimated 1997 1998 Change Receipts 168.0 178.0 10.0 Outlays 154.4 183.5 29.1 Deficit (-) or Surplus 13.6 -5.5 -19.1 SOURCE: Department of the Treasury and Congressional Budget Office. a. Includes Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service fund, which are off-budget. Total receipts in December are estimated to be about $ 10 billion higher than a year ago, and outlays are esti- mated to be about $29 billion higher, largely because of early payments of January Social Security benefits. CBO's estimates for the monthly total deficit or surplus are usually within $2 billion of the final results reported later in the month by the Department of the Treasury. COMPARISON WITH LAST YEAR a (By fiscal year, in billions of dollars) October-December Estimated 1997 1998 Change Receipts 386.4 411.9 25.6 Outlays 426.1 467.0 41.0 Deficit() -39.7 -55.1 -15.4 SOURCE: Department of the Treasury and Congressional Budget Office. a. Includes Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service fund, which are off-budget. Receipts for the first quarter of fiscal year 1999 are estimated to be more than $25 billion above last year's level for the same period. Outlays are estimated to be up by about $41 billion, boosted by more than $27 billion in early payments of January Social Security benefits. Excluding those benefit payments, first- quarter outlays were up by about $13 billion over last year, and the first-quarter deficit was down by about $12 billion. RECEIPTS THROUGH DECEMBER a (By fiscal year, in billions of dollars) October-December Percentage Major Source 1997 1998 Change Individual Income 176.3 189.2 7.3 Corporate Income 51.2 47.6 -7.1 Social Insurance 126.4 133.6 5.7 Other 32.4 41.6 28.2 Total 386.4 411.9 6.6 SOURCE: Department of the Treasury and Congressional Budget Office. a. Includes Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service fund, which are off-budget. MONTHLY BUDGET REVIEW 'b~ AFiscal Year 1999 ACongressional Budget Office Analysis

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