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Monthly Budget Review: Fiscal Year 1998 [i] (January-December 1998)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo8655 and id is 1 raw text is: Based on the Monthly Treasury Statement for November and the Daily Treasury Statements for December January 8, 1998 Receipts continued to be very strong in December, while outlays for the month picked up as expected. The 1998 budget is now expected to be near balance, with a deficit of only $5 billion. NOVEMBER RESULTS AND CBO ESTIMATES FOR DECEMBER (In billions of dollars) November December Estimated Actual Estimate Change Receipts 103.5 168.7 65.2 Outlays 120.8 155.0 34.2 Deficit(-)/Surplus -17.3 13.7 31.0 Source: Department ofthe Treasury and Congressional Budget Office. Daily Treasury statements for December indicate that receipts for the month rose to $168.7 billion, boosted by $44 billion in corporate income tax payments. The greater number of working days in December boosted receipts relative to November. Outlays in December are estimated to be about $15 5 billion, $34 billion more than was reported for November. More than half of the increase can be attributed to the calendar. November outlays were low because about $8 billion in payments were shifted to October and because there were only 18 working days. December outlays are high because about $8 billion in payments due on January 1 were made in December and because there were four more working days. The range of error around the CBO estimates of a monthly deficit or surplus is about $2 billion, based on past experience. This means that the actual surplus that will be reported later this month by the Treasury should be somewhere between $12 billion and $16 billion. COMPARISON WITH LAST YEAR (By fiscal year, in billions of dollars) October-December Estimated 1997 1998 Change Receipts 346.0 387.1 41.1 Outlays 405.2 426.7 21.5 Receipts for the first three months are estimated to be about $41 billion, or 11.9 percent, above the amount collected a year ago, reflecting the continuing strong income growth in the economy. Outlays for the first quarter of the fiscal year are estimated to be about $21 billion, or 5.3 percent, above last year's first quarter level. The first quarter deficit is estimated to be about $40 billion, nearly $20 billion lower than the $59 billion deficit posted a year ago for the October-December period. This improvement over last year is expected to be maintained during the remainder of the fiscal year. RECEIPTS THROUGH DECEMBER (By fiscal year, in billions of dollars) October-December Percent Major Source 1997 1998 Change Individual Income 159.3 178.8 12.2 Corporate Income 42.2 51.5 22.1 Social Insurance 116.7 124.4 6.5 Other 27.8 32.5 16.8 Total 346.0 387.1 11.9 Source: Department ofthe Treasury and Congressional Budget Office. Corporate income tax collections in December, a quarterly payment month, were strong--over $5 billion above last year's level. Individual income and payroll tax receipts continue to match fiscal year 1997 growth rates. Relatively high withheld tax payments in the first quarter may reflect increases in withholding rates by certain tax- payers to meet expected tax liabilities. That could reduce nonwithheld payments in January and April. I MONTHLY BUDGET REVIEW Fiscal Year 1998 C0 A Congressional Budget Office Analysis I

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