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Letter to the Honorable Kent Conrad [i] (August 2010)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo8652 and id is 1 raw text is: CONGPESS ONAL BUDGET OFFICE Dou~glas W Ehnendorf, Director LI S. Congress VV shington, DJC 2'0515 August 3, 2010 Honorable Kent Conrad Chairman Committee on the Budget United States Senate Washington, DC 20510 Dear Mr. Chairman: In responding to questions raised by Congressional staff and outside analysts, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has found some errors in one section of its report The Long- Term Budget Outlook, which was released on June 30, 20 10. To correct those errors, CBO is issuing a revised version of the report. The errors did not affect CBO's primary findings-the long-term budget projections under the extended-baseline scenario and the alternative fiscal scenario-as discussed in the summary of the report, nor did they affect numbers presented in any of the tables. Rather, the errors were limited to the analysis of how the projected growth of debt would reduce, or crowd out, private investment and thereby lower gross domes- tic product (GDP) in the United States. The corrected estimates of the effects of crowding out on GDP are smaller than those shown in the original report. Also, the effects of crowding out on gross national product (which equals GDP plus income received from other countries minus income sent abroad) are now shown; those effects were discussed in last year's Long- Term Budget Outlook (released in June 2009) but were not included in the original publication this year. A discussion of the original and revised projections of the crowding-out effects is attached. The changes affect Figures 1-5 and 1-6 of the report and related text. A complete copy of the revised report will be transmitted to you; the changes appear on pages 19 through 22. www cbo gov

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