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Letter to the Honorable George V. Voinovich 1 (December 2002)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo8605 and id is 1 raw text is: CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE                         Dan L. Crippen, Director
U.S. Congress
Waishington, DC 20515
December 4, 2002
Honorable George V. Voinovich
United States Senate
Washington, DC 205 10
Dear Senator:
In response to your recent request, CBO has prepared five alternative budget proj ections that
modify our current baseline (released in August 2002) according to assumptions that you
specified. Table 1 summarizes the results of that analysis, and Tables 2 through 6 show the
detailed, year-by-year estimates. As you requested, for all five scenarios we assume that
discretionary budget authority in 2003 will total $759 billion and that all revenue provisions
scheduled to expire in the next ten years will be extended. The third assumption, which
varied for each scenario, specified different rates of growth or decline of discretionary
budget authority.
You asked us to determine, under those assumptions, what rate of change in discretionary
appropriations would be necessary to produce on-budget balance by 2007 or by 2012. (The
on-budget deficit in 2002 was $318 billion.) Under the specified assumptions, discretionary
budget authority would have to decline by about 8 percent a year in order to reach on-budget
balance in 2007 (see Table 5); a small rate of growth-0.4 percent per year-would yield
on-budget balance in 2012 (see Table 6).
You should note that the revenue adjustments in all the scenarios include-as you specified
in your request-all expiring tax provisions. Some of those provisions are from the stimulus
bill enacted earlier this year and were generally not intended or expected to be extended;
extension of those provisions accounts for an estimated $264 billion in revenues over the
2003-2012 period. Box 1-1 from The Budget and Economic Outlook.- An Update (August
2002) discussed the estimated impact of extending expiring revenue provisions. A copy of
that box is attached.

www.cbo.gov

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