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Additional Information about the Alternative Spending Path for Military Operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and for the War on Terrorism [i] (September 2006)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo8509 and id is 1 raw text is: Additional Information About thc Alternative Spcnding Path for Military Operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and for the War on Terrorism September 22, 2006 The Congressional Budget Office's (CBO's) August 2006 baseline includes spending of appropriations provided in fiscal year 2006 for U.S. military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and for other efforts in the war on terrorism. As specified in the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act of 1985, those 1 0-year baseline projections are based on the assumption that the current year's discretionary budget authority would be provided in each future year through 2016, with adjustments to reflect projected inflation. Less funding would be needed if the Department of Defense (DoD) was able to reduce the number of deployed troops. In its recent report, The Budget and Economic Outlook An Update (August 2006), CBO illustrated the potential effect that decreased spending for those military activities could have on the deficit by presenting one possible alternative scenario for future military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and the war on terrorism.' The scenario, described in more detail here, is one of many possible outcomes and should not be regarded as an estimate of actual war costs or a prediction of how much budget authority DoD will need or request for those activities in the future. This alternative spending path assumes that military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan and other activities related to the war on terrorism decline gradually from their current levels, reaching a steady state after 20 10. Under such assumptions, discretionary outlay s over the 2007-2016 period w~ould be $716 billion less than the comparable baseline figures. If the baseline was otherwise unchanged, projected interest on debt would be $129 billion less than the amount in the current baseline. In estimating the spending for this scenario, CBO assumed that the number of active duty and reserve personnel deployed to Iraq, Afghanistan, and other overseas locations would decline slightly from the average level of about 220,000 in 2006 to 205,000 in 2007. For the scenario, CBO assumed that the number of troops deployed in support of the war on terrorism would continue to decline-to about 55,000 by 2011 Iand remain steady at that level for the remainder of the period. Under such an assumption, some troops would be deployed overseas in operations supporting the war on terrorism throughout the 1 0-year period, but not necessarily in Iraq and Afghanistan. 1 See Congressional Budget Office. The Budget and Economic Outlook. An Update (August 2006), Table 1-8, p. 18.

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