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Letter to the Honorable Ted Stevens [i] (February 2004)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo8103 and id is 1 raw text is: CONG RESSIONAL BUDUGET OF FICE Douglas Holtz-Eaki, Director 4iU.S. Congress Washington, DC 20515 February 27, 2004 Honorable Ted Stevens Chairman Committee on Appropriations United States Senate Washington, DC 205 10 Dear Mr. Chairman: As you requested, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), with contributions from the Joint Committee on Taxation, has analyzed the President's budget submission for fiscal year 2005. This letter and the attached tables summarize the main results of CBO's work; a report on the full analysis, including an assessment of the macroeconomic effects of the President's proposals, will be published on March 8. Under the President's budget, CBO estimates, the deficit would be $478 billion in fiscal year 2004 and $356 billion in 2005 (see Table 1). As a share of the economy, the deficit would total 4.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) this year, then fall to 2.9 percent next year. Under the President's policies, the deficit would decline further-to 2. 1 percent of GDP-in 2006 and then remain between 1.6 percent and 1.8 percent through 2014. Over the 1 0-year period from 2005 through 2014, deficits would total $2.75 trillion under the President's policies-$737 billion higher than CBO's baseline projection of the cumulative deficit.' Debt held by the public would rise from 36 percent of GDP at the end of 2003 to about 40 percent during the years 2006 through 2014. 1. The President's budget does not provide year-by-year estimates of spending and revenues after 2009. It does, however, specify a total effect from changes in tax and mandatory spending laws for the entire 10-year period and proposed levels of discretionary spending through 2009. C130 estimated discretionary outlays for the 2010-2014 period by projecting the discretionary budget authority recommended by the President for 2009 and adjusting for inflation. www.cbo.gov [i]

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