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                 CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE
                             COST ESTIMATE

                                                                October 27, 2017


                                  H.R. 849
                Protecting Seniors' Access to Medicare Act

  As ordered reported by the House Committee on Ways and Means on October 4, 2017


SUMMARY

H.R. 849 would repeal the provisions of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) that established
the Independent Payment Advisory Board (IPAB) and that created a process by which the
Board (or the Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services) would be
required under certain circumstances to modify the Medicare program to achieve specified
savings.

CBO estimates that enacting H.R. 849 would increase direct spending by $17.5 billion over
the 2018-2027 period. That estimate is extremely uncertain because it is not clear whether
the mechanism for spending reductions under the IPAB authority will be invoked under
current law for most of the next ten years. Under CBO's current baseline projections such
authority is projected to be invoked in 2023, 2025, and 2027. However, given the
uncertainty that surrounds those projections, it is possible that such authority would be
invoked in other years. Taking into account that possibility, CBO estimates that repealing
the IPAB provision of the ACA would probably result in higher spending for the Medicare
program over the 2022 through 2027 period than would occur under current law. CBO's
estimate represents the expected value of a broad range of possible effects from repealing
IPAB provisions.

Pay-as-you-go procedures apply because enacting the legislation would affect direct
spending. Enacting the bill would not affect revenues.

CBO estimates that enacting H.R. 849 would increase net direct spending and on-budget
deficits by more than $5 billion in one or more of the four consecutive 10-year periods
beginning in 2028.

H.R. 849 contains no intergovernmental or private-sector mandates as defined in the
Unfunded Mandates Reform Act (UMRA).

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