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The 2016 Long-Term Budget Outlook 1 (July 12, 2016)

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                                                                                           JULY 2016








                  The 2016 Long-Term Budget

                                       Outlook


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                                          Notes


The Congressional Budget Office's extended baseline shows the budget's long-term path under most
of the same assumptions that the agency uses, in accordance with statutory requirements, when
constructing its 1 0-year baseline. In particular, both baselines incorporate the assumptions that
current law generally remains the same but that some mandatory programs are extended after their
authorizations lapse and that spending for Medicare and Social Security continues as scheduled
even if their trust funds are exhausted.

Unless otherwise indicated, the years referred to in most of this report are federal fiscal years, which
run from October I to September 30 and are designated by the calendar year in which they end. In
Chapters 6 and 7, budgetary values, such as the ratio of debt or deficits to gross domestic product, are
presented on a fiscal year basis, whereas economic variables, such as gross national product or interest
rates, are presented on a calendar year basis.

Numbers  in the text, tables, and figures may not add up to totals because of rounding. Also, some values
are expressed as fractions to indicate numbers rounded to amounts greater than a tenth of a percentage
point.

As referred to in this report, the Affordable Care Act comprises the Patient Protection and Affordable
Care Act and the health care provisions of the Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act of 2010,
as affected by subsequent judicial decisions, statutory changes, and administrative actions.

Additional data-including the data underlying the figures in this report, supplemental budget
projections, and the demographic and economic variables underlying those projections-are posted
along with the report on CBO's website.

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