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Preliminary Results From CBO's Analysis of the National Flood Insurance Program 1 (April 19, 2017)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo3432 and id is 1 raw text is: 




        CONGRESSIONAL  BUDGET  OFFICE                                     Keith Hall, Director
        U.S. Congress
        Washington, DC 20515



                                      April 19, 2017



Honorable Jeb Hensarling
Chairman
Committee  on Financial Services
U.S. House of Representatives
Washington, DC  20515

Re: Preliminary Results From CBO's Analysis of the National Flood Insurance Program

Dear Mr. Chairman:

The staff of the Committee on Financial Services has asked the Congressional Budget Office to
provide any information it can about the soundness and affordability of the National Flood
Insurance Program (NFIP)-before  the agency releases the full report that you requested-to
complement  the committee's recent hearings on the subject. The major activities of the program,
which is administered by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA),  include
collecting the premiums for flood insurance policies, paying claims for damage, mapping and
mitigating flood risk, and promoting floodplain management. Current authorization for the NFIP
expires on September 30, 2017.

To arrive at the preliminary findings reported here, CBO compared collections from premiums
(the total annual amount that households pay for their insurance) with the expected costs for the
5 million policies that were in place under the NFIP in the 48 contiguous states on August 31,
2016. This analysis uses estimates of expected claims-the largest, but highly uncertain,
component  of the program's expected costs-produced by commercially available models.
Those estimates are significantly higher than the estimates resulting from FEMA's approach to
measuring expected claims.

CBO's  findings thus far include the following:

    *  A variety of comparisons involving different components of the NFIP's expected costs
       and of premiums for insurance purchased under the program suggest that the premiums
       fall short of costs.

    *  Approximately 25 percent of NFIP policies are intentionally subsidized.

    *  On net, premiums fall well short of expected costs in coastal counties but slightly exceed
       them in inland counties.


www.cbo.gov

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