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Monthly Budget Review for August 2016 1 (September 8, 2016)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo3159 and id is 1 raw text is: ~September 8, 2016 Monthly Budget Review for August 2016 The federal budget deficit was $622 billion for the first 11 months of fiscal year 2016, the Congressional Budget Office estimates-$92 billion more than the shortfall recorded during the same period last year. Revenues and outlays alike were higher than they were last year, but outlays rose much more. In its most recent budget projections, CBO estimated that the deficit for fiscal year 2016 (which will end on September 30, 2016) would total $590 billion, about $152 billion more than the shortfall in fiscal year 2015. (See A date to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2016 to 2026, published in August.) Budget Totals, October-August (Billions of dollars) Actual. FY 2015 Preliminary, FY 2016 Estimated Change Receipts 2.883 2.909 26 Outlays 3.413 3,531 118 Deficit -530 -622 -92 Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of the Treasury. Based on the Monthly Treasury Statement for July 2016 and the Daily Treasury Statements for August 2016. FY = fiscal year. Total Receipts: Small Increase in the First 11 Months of Fiscal Year 2016 Receipts for the first 11 months of fiscal year 2016 totaled $2,909 billion, CBO estimates-$26 billion (or 1 percent) more than they did during the same period last year: m Payroll (social insurance) taxes increased by $44 billion and individual income taxes increased by $7 billion, yielding a total increase of $52 billion (or 2 percent) from those two sources. o Amounts withheld from workers' paychecks increased by $76 billion (or 4 percent), probably because of growth in wages and salaries. The growth of withheld payroll taxes (6 percent) exceeded the growth of withheld individual income taxes (2 percent). However, the amounts currently recorded for those two sources are allocations of total withholding made on the basis of estimates by the Department of the Treasury. When actual tax return data for 2016 become available, the department may reallocate the 2016 receipts from those two sources by adjusting the amounts recorded for 2017 (or some subsequent year). o Overall, nonwithheld receipts declined by $6 billion (or 1 percent). That was the case even though those receipts were $12 billion higher during the first half of the fiscal year than they were during the first half of the previous year. Over the more recent period, from April through August, nonwithheld receipts were $18 billion (or 5 percent) lower this year-mostly because final payments for 2015 made during the tax-filing season this year were less than final payments for 2014 made during the same period last year. Payments of estimated taxes for the current year also have declined. o Income tax refunds increased by $16 billion (or 7 percent), reducing net receipts.

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