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CBO's Cost Estimate for H.R. 308, The Keep the Promise Act 1 (February 25, 2016)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo2764 and id is 1 raw text is: O CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE Keith Hall, Director U.S. Congress Washington, DC 20515 February 25, 2016 Honorable Trent Franks U.S. House of Representatives Washington, DC 20515 Re: CBO's Cost Estimate for H.R. 308, The Keep the Promise Act Dear Congressman: Thank you for meeting with me on February 2, 2016, to discuss how CBO prepared the cost estimate for H.R. 308, the Keep the Promise Act. As I noted in our meeting, CBO discussed the potential budgetary impacts of the bill with interested parties on both sides of the issue. Our conclusions were not driven by political concerns nor were they affected by political pressure. That said, I understand that you disagree with CBO's analysis of the bill, and I want to address the concerns you raised when we met and in your follow-up letter to us. Although CBO acknowledged the possibility of lawsuits if H.R. 308 were enacted, the agency did not predict the outcome of litigation, and it provided no estimate of the costs of such a lawsuit. As discussed in the Basis of Estimate portion of the estimate, CBO concluded that there was too much uncertainty about whether the Tohono O'odham Nation would prevail in such a lawsuit. Given that uncertainty, the cost estimate provided background information about the range of possible outcomes. CBO estimated that enacting the bill would have no direct spending or revenue implications. However, by prohibiting the operation of a casino by the Tohono O'odham Nation, CBO estimated that the bill would eliminate a source of revenue for the Nation and would impose an intergovernmental mandate as defined in the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act. Such revenue losses would occur regardless of whether the Nation brings suit.

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