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Monthly Budget Review for January 2016 1 (February 5, 2016)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo2721 and id is 1 raw text is: t February 5, 2016 Monthly Budget Review for January 2016 The federal budget deficit was $165 billion for the first four months of fiscal year 2016, the Congressional Budget Office estimates-$29 billion less than the shortfall recorded in the same span last year. Receipts were 3 percent higher than they were at this time a year ago, and outlays were about the same. If not for shifts in the timing of certain payments (which otherwise would have fallen on a weekend), the deficit for the first four months of fiscal year 2016 would have been $10 billion larger than it was last year. If lawmakers enact no further legislation affecting spending or revenues this year, the federal government will end fiscal year 2016 with a deficit of $544 billion, or 2.9 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), CBO estimates, up from $439 billion, or 2.5 percent of GDP, in 2015. An estimated $43 billion of this year's projected increase in the deficit will result from a shift in the timing of some payments that the government would ordinarily have made in fiscal year 2017 but that will instead be made in fiscal year 2016, because October 1, 2016-the first day of fiscal year 2017-falls on a weekend. If not for that shift, the projected deficit in 2016 would be $500 billion, or 2.7 percent of GDP. (For more details about CBO's most recent budget projections, see The Budget andEconomic Outlook: 2016 to 2026.) Budget Totals, October-January (Billions of dollars) Actual, FY 2015 Preliminary FY 2016 Estimated Change Receipts 1,046 1,079 33 Outlays 1,240 1,244 4 Deficit -194 -165 29 Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of the Treasury. Based on the Monthly Treasury Statement for December 2015 and the Daily Treasury Statements for January 2016. FY = fiscal year. Total Receipts: Up by 3 Percent in the First Four Months of Fiscal Year 2016 Receipts through January totaled $1,079 billion, CBO estimates-$33 billion more than the amount for the same period last year. The largest changes between last year and this year were in the following categories: * Individual income taxes and payroll (social insurance) taxes together rose by $33 billion (or 4 percent). o An increase of $23 billion (or 3 percent) in amounts withheld from workers' paychecks accounted for the bulk of that gain. Growth in wages and salaries probably explains that increase. o Nonwithheld receipts, largely from the last quarterly payments of estimated taxes for 2015, which were due in January, rose by $9 billion (or 7 percent). o Income tax refunds were $2 billion lower than they had been the previous year. Most tax refunds will be paid from February through April. * Corporate income taxes declined by about $13 billion (or 12 percent). For most corporations, the first quarterly payment of estimated taxes in the current fiscal year was Note: The amounts shown include the surplus or deficit in the Social Security trust funds and the net cash flow of the Postal Service, which are off-budget. Numbers may not add up to totals because of rounding.

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