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Monthly Budget Review for September 2015 1 (October 7, 2015)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo2509 and id is 1 raw text is: OCTOBER 7, 2015 Monthly Budget Review for September 2015 The federal government ran a budget deficit of $435 billion fiscal year 2015, the Congressional Budget Office estimates-$48 billion less than the shortfall recorded in fiscal year 2014, and the smallest deficit recorded since 2007. Relative to the size of the economy, that deficit-at an estimated 2.4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP)-was slightly below the average experienced over the past 50 years, and 2015 was the sixth consecutive year in which the deficit declined as a percentage of GDP since peaking at 9.8 percent in 2009. By CBO's estimate, revenues were about 8 percent higher and outlays were about 5 percent higher in 2015 than they were in the previous fiscal year. CBO's deficit estimate is based on data from the Daily Treasury Statements; the Treasury Department will report the actual deficit for fiscal year 2015 later this month. A deficit of $435 billion would be $9 billion larger than the shortfall that CBO projected in its August 2015 report, An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2015 to 2025. Outlays exceeded the projection by $8 billion and revenues fell short by $2 billion, according to CBO's current estimates. Fiscal Year Totals (Billions of dollars) Actual, FY 2014 Preliminary. FY 2015 Estimated Change Receipts 3,020 3,249 229 Outlays 3,504 3,685 181 Deficit (-) -483 -435 48 Sources: Congressional Budget Office; Department of the Treasury. Based on the Monthly Treasury Statement for August 2015 and the Daily Treasury Statements for September 2015. Note: FY = fiscal year. Total Receipts: Up by 8 Percent in Fiscal Year 2015 Receipts for fiscal year 2015 totaled $3,249 billion, CBO estimates-$229 billion (or 8 percent) more than the total for fiscal year 2014. The largest increases were in the following categories: m Individual income taxes and payroll (social insurance) taxes combined rose by $188 billion (or 8 percent). o Increases in amounts withheld from workers' paychecks-$115 billion (or 6 percent)-accounted for the bulk of that gain. Growth in wages and salaries probably explains the increase in withheld receipts. o Other receipts rose by $75 billion (or 13 percent), reflecting payments made for both the 2014 and 2015 tax years. Most of those payments were for individual income taxes and probably reflect growth in nonwage income. o Income tax refunds rose by $2 billion (or 1 percent), slightly offsetting the increases in withheld and nonwithheld receipts. Note: The amounts shown in this report include the surplus or deficit in the Social Security trust funds and the net cash flow of the Postal Service, which are off-budget. Numbers may not add up to totals because of rounding.

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