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CBO's Projections of Federal Receipts and Expenditures in the National Income and Product Accounts 1 (September 2015)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo2508 and id is 1 raw text is: i' ..  S  SE P T EMB ER 2015
CBO's Projections of
Federal Receipts and Expenditures in the
National Income and Product Accounts

The fiscal transactions of the federal government are
recorded in two major sets of accounts that are conceptu-
ally quite different. One is The Budget of the United States
Government, prepared by the Office of Management and
Budget. It is the framework generally used by executive
branch agencies and the Congress and is the presentation
of the federal government's budgetary activity that is most
often discussed in the press. The other set of accounts
is the national income and product accounts (NIPAs),
produced by the Department of Commerce's Bureau of
Economic Analysis (BEA).1
The purposes served by the budget and the NIPAs and the
relationship between the two sets of accounts arc examined
briefly below and more thoroughly in previous publica-
tions of the Congressional Budget Office.2 CBO recently
reported its latest baseline projections of federal revenues
and outlays using the standard structure for budget
accounting.' This report presents those projections using
1. See Mark S. Ludwick and Benyam Tsehaye, NIPA Translation
of the Fiscal Year 2016 Federal Budget, Survey of Current
Business, vol. 95, no. 3 (Bureau of Economic Analysis, March
2015), www.bea.gov/scb/toc/0315cont.htm; and Bruce E. Baker
and Pamela A. Kelly, BEA Briefing: A Primer on BEAs
Government Accounts, Survey of Current Business, vol. 88, no. 3
(Bureau of Economic Analysis, March 2008), www.bea.gov/scb/
toc/0308cont.htm.
2. See Congressional Budget Office, CBO's Projections of Federal
Receipts and Expenditures in the National Income and Product
Accounts (May 2013), www.cbo.gov/publication/44140.
3. See Congressional Budget Office, An Update to the Budget and
Economic Outlook: 2015 to 2025 (August 2015), www.cbo.gov/
publication/50724.

the NIPA framework (see Table 1) and shows how the two
presentations differ (see Table 2 on page 4).
Over the 2015-2025 projection period spanned by
CBO's baseline, conceptual differences cause receipts in
the NIPAs to be greater than revenues in the budget by
about 5 percent and expenditures in the NIPAs to exceed
outlays in the budget by about 8 percent.4 Projected
expenditures in the NIPAs exceed projected receipts by
a total of $9.4 trillion, whereas deficits in CBO's baseline
budget projections total $7.4 trillion.
The Federal Budget
The budget of the federal government is best understood
as an information and management tool.5 Its main objec-
tives are to provide information that can assist lawmakers
in their policy deliberations, to facilitate the management
and control of federal activities, and to help the Treasury
manage its cash balances and determine its borrowing
needs. In most cases, items in the federal budget are
reported on a cash accounting basis, a method that records
the inflow of revenues and the outflow of spending over a
4. As specified in law, and to provide a benchmark against which
potential policy changes can be measured, CBO constructs its
baseline estimates of federal revenues and spending under the
assumption that current laws generally remain unchanged.
5. Another approach to assessing the government's fiscal
performance is reflected in the annual Financial Report of the
United States Government (www.fms.treas.gov/fr), which uses an
accrual basis of accounting to measure assets, liabilities, revenues,
and expenses. See Congressional Budget Office, Comparing Budget
andAccounting Measures of the Federal Government' Fiscal
Condition (December 2006), www.cbo.gov/publication/18262.

Note: Numbers in the text and tables may not add up to totals because of rounding.

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