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Budgetary and Economic Outcomes Under Paths for Federal Revenues and Noninterest Spending Specified in the Conference Report on the 2016 Budget Resolution 1 (April 2015)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo2177 and id is 1 raw text is: APRIL 2015 Budgetary and Economic Outcomes Under Paths for Federal Revenues and Noninterest Spending Specified in the Conference Report on the 2016 Budget Resolution t the request of the Chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, Senator Mike Enzi, and the Chair- man of the House Budget Committee, Congressman Tom Price, the Congressional Budget Office has pro- jected budgetary and economic outcomes over the 2016- 2025 period assuming certain paths for federal revenues and spending (excluding interest payments). Those paths are consistent with the amounts of overall revenues and spending specified in the conference report on the 2016 budget resolution (S. Con. Res. 11), which was filed on April 29, 2015.' However, the projections do not repre- sent a cost estimate for legislation or an analysis of the effects of any specific policies that might be adopted to produce the revenue and spending paths anticipated in the resolution. The specified paths envision cuts in spending (from the amounts projected to occur under current law) that begin in 2016 and grow successively larger in later years. The paths also envision allowing revenues to rise roughly as projected under current law over the next decade.2 Under those paths, the cumulative deficit over the 2016-2025 1. See House of Representatives, Concurrent Resolution on the Budget for Fiscal Year 2016: Conference Report to Accompany S. Con. Res. 11, House Report 114-96 (April 29, 2015). 2. In this report, the years referred to when describing budget numbers are federal fiscal years (which run from October 1 to September 30) and amounts of federal debt are given as of the end of the fiscal year. The years referred to when describing economic output are calendar years except when noted otherwise. period, excluding interest savings and macroeconomic effects, would be roughly $5 trillion lower than in CBO's current-law baseline, as adjusted to reflect recently enacted legislation.3 The projections in this report represent CBO's assess- ment of how federal debt and economic output would evolve from 2016 to 2025 under those specified paths for revenues and noninterest spending. The projections show how the total amounts of federal revenues and spending-and the resulting amount of federal borrow- ing-under those paths would affect the economy and how those macroeconomic effects (or feedback) in turn would affect the federal budget. Specifically, under the paths for revenues and noninterest spending specified in the conference report on the 2016 budget resolution, the amount of federal debt held by the public would be smaller in all future years than it would be under CBO's baseline projections. With interest savings included and the resulting macroeconomic effects incorpo- rated, the cumulative deficit over the 2016-2025 period would be $6.0 trillion lower than in CBO's current-law baseline, and the budget would be balanced in 2024, CBO estimates. Federal debt held by the public as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) would fall to 56 percent in 3. The CBO budgetary baseline referred to in this report is the baseline issued in March 2015, as adjusted to reflect legislation that was enacted after those projections were prepared.

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