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Estimated Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on Employment and Economic Output in 2014 1 (February 20, 2015)

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                                              FEBRUARY 2015






            Estimated Impact of the

American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on

Employment and Economic Output in 2014


In February 2009, in response to significant weakness in
the economy, lawmakers enacted the American Recovery
and Reinvestment Act (ARRA). The legislation's numer-
ous spending and revenue provisions can be grouped into
several categories according to their focus:

 Providing funds to states and localities-for example'
  by raising federal matching rates under Medicaid,
  providing aid for education, and increasing financial
  support for some transportation projects;

* Supporting people in need-such as by extending and
  expanding unemployment benefits and increasing
  benefits under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance
  Program (formerly the Food Stamp program);

* Purchasing goods and services-for instance, by
  funding construction and other investment activities
  that could take several years to complete; and

* Providing temporary tax relief for individuals and
  businesses-such as by raising exemption amounts for
  the alternative minimum tax, adding a new Making
  Work Pay tax credit, and creating enhanced
  deductions for depreciation of business equipment.

When ARRA was being considered, the Congressional
Budget Office and the staff of the Joint Committee on
Taxation estimated that it would increase budget deficits
by $787 billion between fiscal years 2009 and 2019.
CBO now estimates that the total impact over the 2009-
2019 period will amount to nearly $840 billion (Table 1).
By CBO's estimate, close to half of that impact occurred
in fiscal year 2010, and more than 95 percent of ARRA's


budgetary impact was realized by the end of December
2014.

Various recipients of ARRA funds (most recipients of
grants and loans, contractors, and subcontractors) were
required to report the number of jobs funded through
ARRA after the end of each calendar quarter through
December 2013.1 The law also requires CBO to com-
ment on those reported numbers.

During calendar year 2013 recipients reported that
ARRA funded an average of about 76,000 full-time-
equivalent (FTE) jobs. Those reports, however, do not
provide a comprehensive estimate of the law's impact on

1. The last quarterly reports were submitted in January 2014. See the
  Recovery Accountability and Transparency Board, Recipient
  Reporting (accessed February 17, 2015), http://go.usa.gov/
  3qSYC.
2. Sections 1512(c) and 1512(e) of the American Recovery and
  Reinvestment Act of 2009, Public Law 111-5, 123 Star. 115,
  287-288. This report is the 16th in CBO's series of reports.
  Public Law 112-204, enacted on December 4, 2012, reduced the
  required frequency of CBO's reporting from quarterly to annually
  over the 2013-2015 perio d eliminated the reporting require-
  ment altogether after 2015. For the previous report, see Congres-
  sional Budget Office, Estimated Impact ofthe American Recovery
  and Reinvestment Acton Ep conomic Ouput in
  2013 (February 2014), www.cbo.gov/publication/45122.
3. Data compiled from recipients' reports (on jobs funded and other
  information) are shown at www.recovery.gov/arra/. Recipients
  were asked to calculate FTEs by taking the total number of hours
  worked in a quarter that were funded by ARRA and dividing the
  total by the number of hours that a full-time employee would
  have worked in that quarter. The last required quarterly reports
  covered the fourth quarter of 2013. See www.recovery.gov/arra/
  FAQ/PagesiRecipientReporting.aspx.

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