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Monthly Budget Review [i] (April 5, 2013)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo11007 and id is 1 raw text is: MONTHLY BUDGET REVIEW Fiscal Year 2013 A Congressional Budget Office Analysis Based on the Monthly Treasury Statement for February and the Daily Treasury Statements for March I April 5, 2013 The federal government ran a budget deficit of $601 billion in the first half of fiscal year 2013, CBO estimates, $178 billion less than the shortfall recorded for the same period last year. Revenues were about 12 percent higher, and outlays about 3 percent lower, than the amounts recorded in the first six months of fiscal year 2012. FEBRUARY RESULTS The Treasury Department reported a deficit of $203 billion for February 2013, about $2 billion less than CBO had estimated on the basis of the Daily Treasury Statements. ESTIMATES FOR MARCH (Billions of dollars) 8 percent), spending for unemployment compensation dropped by $3 billion (or 30 percent), and spending for Medicaid declined by $2 billion (or 8 percent), after adjustments to account for shifts in the dates of certain payments. Spending for Social Security benefits, in contrast, rose by $3 billion (or 5 percent). Outlays for other programs and activities differed by smaller amounts, in either direction, from outlays last March. Receipts were about $15 billion (or 9 percent) higher in Actual Preliminary Estimated March 2013 than in March 2012, by CBO's estimate. FY 2012 FY 2013 Change Withheld individual income taxes and payroll taxes were $20 billion (or 12 percent) higher; about half of Receipts 171 186 15 that increase reflects the expiration of the payroll tax cut Outlays 369 293 -76 in January 2013, along with other tax increases. The rise Deficit (-) -198 -107 91 in withheld taxes was partly offset by an increase in refunds of individual income taxes. Those refunds were Sources: Department of the Treasury; CBO. $10 billion (or 20 percent) higher than in March 2012, partly because a delay in the start of the tax-filing The deficit in March 2013 amounted to $107 billion, season caused some refunds that ordinarily would have CBO estimates, R91 billion less than the deficit reported been paid in February to be disbursed in March. for March 2012. Most of that difference occurred because outlays were an estimated $76 billion (or 21 percent) lower this March than in the same month last year. Some of the decrease in outlays stems from quirks of the calendar. (Because April 1, 2012, was a Sunday, outlays last March included about $31 billion in payments that would ordinarily be made in April but were instead made in March that year.) In addition, revisions to estimates of the cost of several federal credit programs-notably, the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP)-shrank net outlays by $29 billion this March compared with last March. Without those revisions and shifts in the timing of payments, outlays would have been just $16 billion (or 5 percent) lower in March 2013 than in March 2012. Net payments to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were $11 billion lower than in March 2012, because the government did not provide cash infusions to those entities this March. In addition, compared with outlays last March, spending for defense fell by $5 billion (or Net receipts of corporate income taxes in March 2013- when most corporations made their final payments of 2012 tax liabilities-were $5 billion (or 19 percent) greater than in the same month last year. BUDGET TOTALS THROUGH MARCH (Billions of dollars) Actual Preliminary Estimated FY 2012 FY 2013 Change Receipts 1,064 1,197 132 Outlays 1,843 1,798 -46 Deficit (-) -779 -601 178 Sources: Department of the Treasury; CBO. CBO estimates that the Treasury will record a deficit of $601 billion for the first six months of fiscal year 2013, $178 billion less than the deficit for the same period last year. Revenues were $132 billion higher in the first half of this year, and outlays were $46 billion lower. Note: Unless otherwise indicated, the figures in this report include the Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service fund, which are off-budget. Numbers may not add up to totals because of rounding.

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