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Monthly Budget Review [i] (March 7, 2013)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo10983 and id is 1 raw text is: Based on the Monthly Treasury Statement for January
and the Daily Treasury Statements for February

March 7, 2013

The federal budget deficit was $495 billion for the first five months of fiscal year 2013, $86 billion less than the
shortfall recorded for the same period last year, CBO estimates. If lawmakers enacted no further legislation affecting
spending or revenues, the federal government would end fiscal year 2013 with a deficit of $845 billion, by CBO's
estimate, about $240 billion less than the 2012 deficit.

JANUARY RESULTS
The U.S. Treasury reported a surplus of $3 billion for
January, compared with the $2 billion deficit CBO
estimated on the basis of the Daily Treasury Statements.
Revenues were $2 billion more and outlays were
$2 billion less than CBO estimated.
ESTIMATES FOR FEBRUARY
(Billions of dollars)
Actual    Preliminary  Estimated
FY 2012     FY 2013      Change
Receipts         103         128          24
Outlays          335         332          -3
Deficit (-)     -232        -205          27
Sources: Department of the Treasury; CBO.
The deficit in February was $205 billion, CBO
estimates, $27 billion less than the deficit reported in
February 2012.
Receipts in February 2013 were about $24 billion (or
23 percent) higher than those in February 2012, by
CBO's estimate. The increase occurred primarily
because individual income tax refunds were $20 billion
(or 25 percent) lower, reflecting a delay in the start of
the filing season for most individuals until January 30
this year. Withheld income and payroll taxes were
$6 billion (or 4 percent) higher than those last February.
The expiration of the payroll tax cut in January 2013
contributed most significantly to that increase; that
change was partially offset by the fact that February
2013 included one fewer day of withheld receipts than
February 2012. Net receipts of corporate income taxes
rose by $1 billion, but receipts from the Federal Reserve
were $3 billion lower than in February 2012.

Outlays were $3 billion (or 1 percent) lower in February
2013 than in February 2012, CBO estimates. Outlays for
defense were $8 billion (or 15 percent) lower, reflecting
declines in most major categories of defense spending.
Unemployment benefits declined by $3 billion (or
29 percent). In contrast, outlays for Social Security
benefits were $3 billion (or 5 percent) higher than in
February 2012. Spending for disaster relief, mostly
related to Hurricane Sandy, was also higher, by
$2 billion. Outlays for other programs and activities
differed by smaller amounts in both directions.
BUDGET TOTALS THROUGH FEBRUARY
(Billions of dollars)
Actual     Preliminary  Estimated
FY 2012      FY 2013      Change
Receipts          893         L015         122
Outlays          1,474        1,511         37
Deficit (-)      -581         -495          86
Sources: Department of the Treasury; CBO.
CBO estimates that the Treasury will record a deficit of
$495 billion for the first five months of fiscal year 2013,
$86 billion less than the shortfall in the same period last
year. Revenues grew by $122 billion (or 14 percent),
and outlays rose by $37 billion (or 2 percent).
Unusual circumstances affected the year-over-year
difference. Outlays in the first five months of fiscal year
2012 were particularly low because October 1, 2011,
fell on a weekend, and about $31 billion in payments
was shifted into the previous fiscal year. If not for those
shifts, the deficit in the first five months of fiscal year
2012 would have been $116 billion more than the
shortfall CBO estimates for the same period in fiscal
year 2013. In the other direction, however, revenues so
far this year have been boosted by a delay in the
processing of tax refunds and by an increase in
payments of estimated taxes that occurred because some
people shifted income into calendar year 2012 in
expectation of higher tax rates in 2013.

Note:    Unless otherwise indicated, the figures in this report include the Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service fund,
which are off-budget. Numbers may not add up to totals because of rounding.

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