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Monthly Budget Review 1 (February 7, 2013)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo10967 and id is 1 raw text is: Based on the Monthly Treasury Statement for December and the Daily Treasury Statements for January February 7, 2013 The federal budget deficit was $295 billion for the first four months of fiscal year 2013, $54 billion less than the shortfall recorded for the same period last year, CBO estimates. Without shifts in the timing of certain payments in both years, however, the deficit for the four-month period would have been about $84 billion lower this year than the amount in fiscal year 2012. If lawmakers enacted no further legislation affecting spending or revenues, the federal government would end fiscal year 2013 with a deficit of $845 billion, or 5.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), CBO estimates-compared with $1.1 trillion, or 7.0 percent of GDP, in 2012. (For more details about CBO's most recent budget projections, see The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2013 to 2023.) DECEMBER RESULTS The U.S. Treasury reported a deficit of $1 billion for December, the same as CBO's estimate based on the Daily Treasury Statements. ESTIMATES FOR JANUARY (Billions of dollars) Actual Preliminary Estimated FY 2012 FY 2013 Change Receipts 234 270 36 Outlays 262 272 10 Deficit (-) -27 -2 26 Sources: Department of the Treasury; CBO. The Treasury realized a deficit in January of $2 billion, CBO estimates, which is $26 billion less than the deficit reported in January 2012. In both years, because January 1 is a holiday, spending was affected by a shift of certain payments from January to December; without those shifts, the deficits in January would have been $44 billion and $20 billion in 2012 and 2013 respectively. Receipts were about $36 billion (or 15 percent) higher in January 2013 than they were in the same month last year, CBO estimates, largely because revenues from individual income and payroll taxes increased by $33 billion (or 15 percent). Withheld taxes accounted for $13 billion (or 8 percent) of that increase, mostly the result of changes in tax rules. Most significantly, the temporary cut in payroll taxes expired at the end of December 2012, boosting withheld receipts by about $9 billion. Receipts from nonwithheld individual income and payroll taxes (which included estimated payments of individual income taxes for the last quarter of calendar year 2012) were $13 billion (or 23 percent) higher in January 2013 than in the same month a year ago. CBO estimates that shifting of income from 2013 to December 2012 in anticipation of higher tax rates in calendar year 2013 affected both nonwithheld and withheld income taxes in January. Much of the growth in nonwithheld taxes resulted from that shifting of income, leading to higher estimated payments of 2012 tax liabilities in January, but that shifting boosted withheld taxes in December and reduced them in January. Individual income tax refunds were $6 billion lower than they were last January because the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) delayed the processing of 2012 individual income tax returns until January 30. Outlays were $10 billion higher in January 2013 than in January 2012, CBO estimates. Without the shifts in the timing of certain payments, the spending increase would have been slightly larger ($11 billion). Outlays for Medicare grew by $5 billion and those for Medicaid by $4 billion. Social Security benefits were $3 billion more than in January 2012. In contrast, payments for net interest on the public debt were $4 billion lower than the amount in January of last year. Unemployment benefits and international security assistance were both lower by $2 billion. BUDGET TOTALS THROUGH JANUARY (Billions of dollars) Actual Preliminary Estimated FY 2012 FY 2013 Change Receipts 790 886 96 Outlays 1,139 1,181 42 Deficit (-) -349 -295 54 Sources: Department of the Treasury; CBO. CBO estimates that the Treasury will record a deficit of $295 billion for the first four months of fiscal year 2013, $54 billion less than the shortfall in the same period last year. Revenues grew by $96 billion (or 12 percent), and outlays rose by $42 billion (or 4 percent). But outlays in the first four months of fiscal Note: Unless otherwise indicated, the figures in this report include the Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service fund, which are off-budget. Numbers may not add up to totals because of rounding.

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