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Monthly Budget Review [1] (October 5, 2012)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo10915 and id is 1 raw text is: Based on the Monthly Treasury Statement for August
and the Daily Treasury Statements for September

October 5, 2012

The federal budget deficit was about $1.1 trillion in fiscal year 2012, CBO estimates, approximately $200 billion
less than the shortfall recorded in 2011. At 7.0 percent of gross domestic product, the 2012 deficit was down from
8.7 percent in 2011 and 9.0 percent in 2010 but greater than in any year between 1947 and 2008. The estimated 2012
total reflects the shift of some payments from fiscal year 2012 into fiscal year 2011 (that is, from October 2011 to
September 2011, because October 1 fell on a weekend); without that timing shift, the deficit in 2012 would have
been about $30 billion higher. CBO's deficit estimate is based on data from the Daily Treasury Statements; the
Treasury Department will report the actual deficit for fiscal year 2012 later this month.

AUGUST RESULTS
The Treasury reported a deficit of $191 billion for
August, $1 billion less than the amount CBO had
projected on the basis of the Daily Treasury Statements.
ESTIMATES FOR SEPTEMBER
(Billions of dollars)
Actual    Preliminary  Estimated
FY 2011     FY 2012      Change
Receipts         240         263          23
Outlays          303         188         -115
Deficit (-)Surplus  -63      75         138
Sources: Department of the Treasury; CBO.
The Treasury recorded a surplus of $75 billion in
September 2012, CBO estimates, in contrast with the
$63 billion deficit incurred in the same month last year.
Shifts in the timing of certain payments influenced the
results in both years: Payments totaling $31 billion were
shifted from October 2011 to September 2011, while
payments totaling  $58 billion were shifted from
September 2012 to August 2012. Adjusted for those
timing shifts, the surplus in September 2012 would have
been $17 billion, in contrast with a deficit of $32 billion
in September 2011.
Adjusted for timing shifts, outlays last month would
have been $26 billion (or 10 percent) less than the
amount recorded in September of last year, CBO
estimates. Net payments to Fannie Mae and Freddie
Mac were $7 billion lower than in the same month last
year, because the government did not provide cash
infusions to the two entities this September. The
government recorded receipts of $7 billion in September
from the sale of stock in American International Group;
no such sale occurred in September 2011. Outlays for
unemployment benefits were    $6 billion  lower in
September than they were a year ago. Adjusted for the

effects of shifts in the timing of some payments,
spending for military  activities also declined, by
$5 billion, largely because of smaller payments to
contractors for goods and services. In contrast, spending
for Social Security benefits was $4 billion higher in
September 2012 than in September 2011.
Receipts this September were about $23 billion (or
9 percent) higher than those in September 2011, CBO
estimates. Net receipts from the corporate income tax
rose by $17 billion (or 44 percent), reflecting higher
quarterly tax payments. Net receipts from individual
income and payroll taxes rose by $5 billion (or
3 percent). Withheld receipts from those sources fell by
$1 billion, but they would have risen if not for the
effects of the calendar: September 2012 had two fewer
business days than September 2011. Nonwithheld
receipts of individual income and payroll taxes, mainly
quarterly estimated payments of 2012 taxes, rose by
$3 billion (or 6 percent). And, together, changes in
refunds of individual income taxes and in collections of
payroll taxes for unemployment insurance boosted
receipts by $2 billion.
FISCAL YEAR TOTALS
(Billions of dollars)
Actual    Preliminary  Estimated
FY 2011     FY 2012      Change
Receipts         2,302      2,450         148
Outlays          3,599      3,540         -59
Deficit (-)     -1,297      -1,090       207
Sources: Department of the Treasury; CBO.
The federal deficit was just under $1.1 trillion in 2012,
CBO estimates, $207 billion lower than the 2011 deficit
and $38 billion less than the agency projected in
August. Outlays appear to have been $23 billion lower
and revenues $15 billion higher than CBO expected.

Note:    Unless otherwise indicated, the figures in this report include the Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service fund,
which are off-budget. Numbers may not add up to totals because of rounding.

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