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Monthly Budget Review: September 10, 2012 1 (September 10, 2012)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo10871 and id is 1 raw text is: Based on the Monthly Treasury Statement for July and the Daily Treasury Statements for August September 10, 2012 CBO estimates that the Treasury Department will report a deficit of $1.17 trillion for the first 11 months of fiscal year 2012, almost $70 billion less than the deficit at the same point last year. Through the end of August, revenues in fiscal year 2012 were about 6 percent higher and outlays about 2 percent higher than they were through August of last year. In CBO's most recent budget projections, the agency estimated that the deficit for fiscal year 2012 (which will end on September 30, 2012) will total $1.13 trillion, about $175 billion less than last year's shortfall. (See An U pdate to the Btudet and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022, which CBO published in August.) JULY RESULTS The Treasury reported a deficit of $70 billion for July, $1 billion less than the amount CBO had projected on the basis of the Daily Treasury Statements. ESTIMATES FOR AUGUST (Billions of dollars) Actual Preliminary Estimated FY 2011 FY 2012 Change Receipts 169 179 10 Outlays 303 371 68 Deficit (-) -134 -192 -58 Sources: Department of the Treasury; CBO. The deficit in August was $192 billion, CBO estimates, $58 billion more than the deficit recorded a year ago. That outcome, however, was affected by the fact that the Labor Day weekend came right at the beginning of September. Consequently, certain payments that are ordinarily made at the beginning of each month- including Social Security benefits-were shifted from September to August, boosting spending last month. Without those timing shifts, the deficit this August would have been about the same as the shortfall in August 2011. In the absence of those payment shifts, outlays would have been about $10 billion (or 3 percent) more than the amount recorded in August of last year, CBO estimates. Much of that increase resulted from a change in the projected subsidy costs for housing loans and loan guarantees that had been made in previous years, which boosted outlays by $9 billion. Excluding the effects of the payment shifts, Social Security benefits paid in August were $4 billion higher than the amounts paid last August. Also, outlays for veterans' programs were $3 billion higher. In contrast, spending was lower for unemployment benefits (by $3 billion), as well as for defense, net interest on the public debt, and international assistance (each by $1 billion). Receipts in August were $10 billion (or 6 percent) higher than those in August 2011, CBO estimates. Net receipts from individual income taxes and payroll taxes, which account for more than 80 percent of total federal revenues, rose by $1 billion (or 1 percent). Withholding of individual income and payroll taxes rose by $3 billion (or 2 percent), whereas collections of payroll taxes for unemployment insurance declined by $2 billion. In addition, corporate income taxes and receipts from the Federal Reserve each rose by $3 billion. Together, receipts from excise taxes and from estate and gift taxes also increased by $3 billion. BUDGET TOTALS THROUGH AUGUST (Billions of dollars) Actual Preliminary Estimated FY 2011 FY 2012 Change Receipts 2,062 2,188 126 Outlays 3,296 3,354 57 Deficit (-) -1,234 -1,166 68 Sources: Department of the Treasury; CBO. In CBO's estimation, the deficit through August for fiscal year 2012 was $1,166 billion, $68 billion less than the deficit recorded for the same period last year. Revenues have increased by $126 billion, and outlays have risen by $57 billion. REVENUES Total revenues in the first 11 months of fiscal year 2012 were 6 percent higher than those in the same period last year. Corporate income taxes contributed the largest amount to the overall increase in revenues. Net corporate receipts grew by $45 billion (or 31 percent), largely because of changes in tax rules in recent years- in particular, the rules governing how quickly firms may deduct the cost of their investments in equipment. Note: Unless otherwise indicated, the figures in this report include the Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service fund, which are off-budget. Numbers may not add up to totals because of rounding.

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