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Monthly Budget Review [i] (August 7, 2012)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo10831 and id is 1 raw text is: Based on the Monthly Treasury Statement for June and the Daily Treasury Statements for July August 7, 2012 CBO estimates that the Treasury Department will report a deficit of $975 billion for the first 10 months of fiscal year 2012, $125 billion less than the $1.1 trillion deficit incurred through July 2011. Through the end of July, revenues were about 6 percent higher this year than at the same point last year; outlays were about the same in both years. Because October 1, 2011, occurred on a Saturday, roughly $31 billion in payments that would have been made in 2012 were made in 2011. In the absence of that shift, the deficit so far this year would have been about $93 billion smaller than last year's figure. JUNE RESULTS The Treasury reported a deficit of $60 billion for June, the same as CBO's estimate based on the Daily Treasury Statements. ESTIMATES FOR JULY (Billions of dollars) Actual Preliminary Estimated FY 2011 FY 2012 Change Receipts 159 183 24 Outlays 288 254 -35 Deficit (-) -129 -71 58 Sources: Department of the Treasury; CBO. The deficit in July was $71 billion, CBO estimates, $58 billion less than the shortfall recorded a year ago. Spending last month was influenced by the shift of certain payments from July to June; if not for those timing shifts, the deficit in July 2012 would have been $22 billion less than the shortfall in July 2011. Receipts in July were $24 billion (or 15 percent) higher than those in July 2011, CBO estimates. Most of that gain ($19 billion) was the result of increased receipts from individual income and payroll taxes. Withholding for income and payroll taxes rose by $12 billion (or 9 percent). About half of that increase occurred because July 2012 had one more business day than July 2011; the rest of the gain can be explained by higher wage and salary income. In addition, collections of state unem- ployment taxes rose by $6 billion. Together, receipts from excise taxes, estate and gift taxes, corporate taxes, and miscellaneous fees and fines rose by $5 billion. Outlays were $35 billion lower this July than they were in the same month last year, mostly because about $36 billion in payments that would ordinarily have been made in July were instead made in June this year (because July 1 fell on a Sunday). Without that timing shift, outlays would have been $1 billion (or less than 1 percent) higher in July 2012 than in July 2011. Spending for Social Security benefits was $4 billion higher than in July 2011. Excluding the effects of timing shifts for some payments, outlays were also higher for Medicare (by $3 billion) and for defense spending (by $2 billion). In contrast, net interest on the public debt was $4 billion lower than in July 2011. Also, net outlays for the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) were about $2 billion lower, mainly because TVA's net investments were higher in July 2011 than July 2012. BUDGET TOTALS THROUGH JULY (Billions of dollars) Actual Preliminary Estimated FY 2011 FY 2012 Change Receipts 1,893 2,007 114 Outlays 2,993 2,982 -11 Deficit (-) -1,100 -975 125 Sources: Department of the Treasury; CBO. In CBO's estimation, the government recorded a deficit of $975 billion through July 2012, $125 billion less than the deficit for the same period last year. Revenues rose by $114 billion, and outlays declined by $11 billion. REVENUES Total revenues in the first 10 months of fiscal year 2012 were 6 percent higher than those in the same period last year, CBO estimates. Through July, the largest percentage increase was in net receipts from corporate income taxes, which grew by $42 billion (or 30 percent). The growth in corporate receipts this year is largely attributable to changes in tax rules in recent years-in particular, the rules governing how quickly firms may deduct the cost of their invest- ments in equipment. Individual income tax receipts grew by $37 billion (or 4 percent). Growth in wages boosted withholding by $28 billion (or 3 percent). Nonwithheld payments also increased-by $11 billion (or 4 percent). Those gains were partially offset by an increase of $2 billion (or 1 percent) in refunds. Note: Unless otherwise indicated, the figures in this report include the Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service fund, which are off-budget. Numbers may not add up to totals because of rounding.

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