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CBO and JCT's Estimates of the Effects of the Affordable Care Act on the Number of People Obtaining Employment-Based Health Insurance [i] (March 2012)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo10706 and id is 1 raw text is: K MARCH 2012 CBO and JCT's Estimates of the Effects of the Affordable Care Act on the Number of People Obtaining Employment-Based Health Insurance This document responds to questions that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) have received regarding their estimates of the effects of the Affordable Care Act (ACA).1 In their original analysis of the impact of the legislation, CBO and JCT estimated that, on balance, the number of people obtaining coverage through their employer would be about 3 million lower in 2019 under the legislation than under prior law.2 As reflected in CBO's latest baseline projections, the two agencies now anticipate that, because of the ACA, about 3 million to 5 million fewer people, on net, will obtain coverage through their employer each year from 2019 through 2022 than would have been the case under prior law.3 Some observers have expressed surprise that CBO and JCT have not expected a much larger reduction in the number of people receiving employment-based health insurance in light of the expanded availability of subsidized health insurance coverage that will result from the ACA. CBO and JCT's estimates take account of that expansion, but they also recognize that the legislation leaves in place some financial incentives and also creates new financial incentives for firms to offer and for many people to obtain health insurance coverage through their employers. CBO and JCT have estimated that many workers and their families will not be eligible for Medicaid, the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP), or substantial subsidies for the purchase of health insurance through the exchanges and that most employers will continue to have an economic incentive to offer health insurance to their employees. This analysis provides some IThe Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (Public Law 111-148), as amended by the health care provisions of the Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act of 2010 (P.L. 111-152). 2See Congressional Budget Office, cs siaefrR.47.teRcniito c f21 (March 20, 2010). 3See Congressional Bud get Office, UdtdEtmtsfrteIsrneCvrg rvsoso theAffrdale areAct(March 2012). As specified in law, and to provide a benchmark against which potential legislation can be measured, CBO constructs its baseline estimates under the assumption that current laws generally remain unchanged.

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