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Letter to the Honorable Harry Reid 1 (March 7, 2012)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo10639 and id is 1 raw text is: CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE Douglas W. Elmendorf, Director U.S. Congress Washington, DC 20515 March 7, 2012 Honorable Harry Reid Majority Leader United States Senate Washington, DC 20510 Dear Mr. Leader: This is a revised cost estimate that supersedes the estimate CBO transmitted on March 5, 2012, for S. 1813, the Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act, with an amendment, Number 1761. Table 1 of the earlier estimate incorrectly displayed the split between the off-budget and on-budget revenue and deficit effects. The estimate of the legislation's net impact on the deficit is unchanged as are the estimates of discretionary spending and the cash flows for accounts in the Highway Trust Fund. CBO estimates that enacting the legislation with the proposed amendment would increase both direct spending and revenues; therefore, pay-as-you-go procedures apply. Together, CBO estimates that those changes to direct spending and revenues would reduce future deficits by $5.9 billion over the 2012-2017 period and by $6.9 billion over the 2012-2022 period (see enclosed Table 1). CBO also estimates that implementing the bill would have discretionary costs of $47.0 billion over the 2012-2017 period, assuming appropriation actions consistent with the bill and the proposed amendment (see enclosed Table 2). In addition, CBO estimates that implementing provisions of the bill for the remainder of 2012 and for 2013 would result in an end-of-year balance in 2013 of approximately $2 billion in the highway account of the Highway Trust Fund and about $3 billion in the transit account of the Highway Trust Fund (see enclosed Table 3). CBO has determined that the nontax provisions of the consolidated bill contain intergovernmental and private-sector mandates, as delined in the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act (UMRA), on driving schools, entities that employ drivers, and rail carriers that transport passengers. The bill would impose additional intergovernmental mandates on state and local governments and would preempt state, local, and tribal laws. Primarily because of uncertainty about the costs of bankruptcy provisions on state and local governments, CBO cannot determine whether the aggregate cost of the intergovernmental mandates in the bill would exceed the annual threshold established in UMRA ($73 million in 2012, adjusted annually for inflation).

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